Guotai Haitong: China Enters Accelerated Satellite Internet Networking Phase, Focuses on New Opportunities in Satellite Manufacturing Sector.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that China has planned to launch more than 25,000 satellites relying on the GW constellation and Qianfan constellation network plans. Commercial aerospace, as a new productive force direction that the country focuses on cultivating, has gradually entered a period of rapid network construction after years of preparation and nurturing. In terms of cost reduction trends, the United States started satellite development earlier, and the scale of satellite platforms has progressed faster than China's, resulting in lower costs for satellite platforms. After China achieves scale production, the cost-value ratio of satellite platforms is expected to decrease to a smaller range, focusing the main manufacturing costs on payloads. At the same time, with the scale demand for low-orbit communication satellites, key components in the satellite manufacturing industry and high-value segments will gain new opportunities. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: In the competitive context of space resources, China enters the accelerated networking period of satellite Internet Space resources as a high ground for technological competition, in the game rules of "first come, first served," China and the United States have become the only two competitive countries. The total number of satellites in orbit globally, counted by payload, is 15,621, with the United States having 10,490 satellites in orbit, accounting for about two-thirds of the global total, Russia has 1,577 satellites in orbit, and China has 951 satellites. SpaceX, founded by Musk, is currently the world's largest satellite networking company. As of October 2025, Starlink, under SpaceX, has exceeded 10,000 satellites in orbit and completed the closed-loop of its business model, achieving positive operations for the company. Satellite Internet, as an industry with high technology, heavy capital, and large application scenarios, under the promotion of national research and development strength, economic scale, market demand, etc., in the future, only China and the United States remain competitive. China has planned to launch more than 25,000 satellites relying on the GW and Qianfan constellation network plans, and commercial aerospace, as a new productive force direction that the country focuses on cultivating, has gradually entered a period of rapid networking after years of preparation and nurturing. Low-orbit communication satellites will become the trend of future satellite Internet Direct satellite connections to phones and other new models and formats have achieved large-scale applications, developing satellite communication users to over tens of million. With the gradual maturation of D2C technology, potentially hundreds of millions of smartphones worldwide are expected to become potential terminal entrances for communication satellites in the future. Currently, mainstream terminal manufacturers such as Apple and Huawei have first deployed satellite communication functions in high-end models. Low-orbit high-throughput communication satellites (HTS) have greatly increased capacity and reduced unit bandwidth costs, becoming an important direction for the development of communication satellites in the future. Compared with traditional communication satellites, high-throughput satellites use multi-beam and frequency reuse technologies to provide traditional satellite capacity several times or even hundreds of times, increasing from less than 10 Gbit/s to tens of Gbit/s or even hundreds of Gbit/s, with an average rate essentially equivalent to 4G, providing more diverse application scenarios and more complete communication guarantees. Starlink currently covers more than 100 countries and regions globally, with over 7 million active users, proving the certainty of their demand and the broad market space. After exploration and the courage to catch up, China has entered a new stage of commercial aerospace In 1970, China successfully launched its first artificial satellite, "Dongfanghong-1," making China the fifth country globally to independently launch an artificial satellite. The successful development of this satellite laid a solid technological foundation for the subsequent aerospace industry development and established a complete Changzheng Engineering Technology system. In the 21st century, private aerospace companies such as SpaceX rapidly emerged globally, leading China Spacesat manufacturing industry gradually transitioning from government-led to market-driven. Currently, China has formed a new pattern of low-orbit satellite constellation construction, jointly promoted by traditional national forces such as China Spacesat under the Fifth Academy of Aerospace, and emerging commercial companies such as Shanghai Yuxin, Galaxy Aerospace, Changguang Satellite, and Micron Starry Sky. Under the trend of cost reduction, the application and popularization of new technologies through the continuous iteration of satellite payloads and platforms Musk claimed that the manufacturing cost of a single Starlink satellite is below $500,000, proving the feasibility of this model at the commercial level. The United States started satellite development earlier, and the scale of satellite platforms has progressed faster than China's, resulting in lower costs for satellite platforms. After China achieves scale production, the cost-value ratio of satellite platforms is expected to decrease to a smaller range, focusing the main manufacturing costs on payloads. At the same time, with the scale demand for low-orbit communication satellites, key components in the satellite manufacturing industry and high-value segments will gain new opportunities. Investment suggestions: Pay attention to satellite Internet networking companies and operators, as license advantages and scale advantages will be the core sources of competitive strength in the satellite Internet field; pay attention to satellite whole star research and manufacturing companies to share the dividend of China's rapid networking period for satellite Internet; focus on key components in satellite manufacturing: phased array antennas; inter-satellite laser communication; electric propulsion; flexible solar panels, and other key and high-value segments. Risk warnings: The progress of satellite Internet networking is lower than expected; manufacturing costs do not decrease as expected; on-orbit satellite connections and related technology verification may be lower than expected.