Guotai Haitong: The rate of decline in express delivery prices in September narrowed, and the trend of anti-internal "involution" continued to spread.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the total number of parcels delivered by national express delivery companies in September 2025 was 16.88 billion, an increase of 12.7% year-on-year; the total number of parcels delivered from January to September 2025 was 145.08 billion, an increase of 17.2% year-on-year. In terms of unit price, in September 2025, the revenue of the express delivery industry increased by 7.2% year-on-year, while the revenue per parcel decreased by 4.9% year-on-year; from January to September, the industry revenue increased by 8.9% year-on-year, while the revenue per parcel decreased by 7.1% year-on-year. The narrowing of the year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decrease in revenue per parcel in September in the express delivery industry reflects a trend of easing price competition under the guidance of anti-"internal surging" in the industry. The "anti-internal surging" policy will effectively alleviate industry competition pressure, and it is expected that the profitability of e-commerce express delivery will start to recover in the second half of the year. Future profitability will depend on the sustainability of price increases, so it is recommended to pay close attention to the regulatory efforts of the postal administration. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: - In September, the number of express delivery parcels increased by 12.7% year-on-year; Shunfeng deepened the implementation of business activation, with a business volume growth rate of 31.81%, continuing to lead the industry. - Overall industry: In September 2025, the total number of parcels delivered by national express delivery companies was 16.88 billion, an increase of 12.7% year-on-year; the total number of parcels delivered from January to September 2025 was 145.08 billion, an increase of 17.2% year-on-year. The trend towards smaller parcels, coupled with e-commerce promotions and easy returns and exchanges, jointly drove the volume growth rate in the first nine months of 2025 to exceed the postal administration's forecast of a yearly volume growth rate of over 8% for 2025. - E-commerce express delivery: In September 2025, the business volume of Yuantong/Yunda/Shentong increased by 13.6%/3.6%/9.5% year-on-year, respectively; from January to September, the business volumes increased by 19.4%/13.0%/17.1% year-on-year, respectively. - Direct operating express delivery: In September 2025, the business volume of Shunfeng increased by 31.8% year-on-year; from January to September, the business volume increased by 28.3% year-on-year, benefiting from the implementation of business activation strategies and increased authorization and incentives for front-line businesses, Shunfeng's volume growth continued to lead the industry from March to September. Industry concentration continues to increase, with leading companies increasing their market share in Q3 From the beginning of 2022 to the end of 2024, due to relatively mild price competition under policy regulation, the concentration of market share towards leading companies increased slowly. 1) Overall industry: The CR8 of the express delivery industry from January to September 2025 was 86.9, an increase of 1.7 year-on-year, reflecting a significant increase in market share concentration of leading enterprises in 2025. 2) E-commerce express delivery: In Q3 of 2025, the market share of Yuantong/Yunda/Shentong/Jitu was 15.6%/13.0%/13.2%/11.3%, respectively, with changes in market share from Q2 of -0.4pct/-0.2pct/+0.2pct/+0.2pct, showing an increase in market share for leading express delivery companies in Q3. 3) Direct operating express delivery: In Q3 of 2025, Shunfeng's market share was 8.7%, an increase of 0.2pct from Q2. The decrease in price in September narrowed, the intensity of anti-"internal surging" in express delivery surpassed expectations, short-term competitive pressures eased, and medium- to long-term safeguards for benign competition continued 1) Overall industry: In September 2025, the revenue of the express delivery industry increased by 7.2% year-on-year, while the revenue per parcel decreased by 4.9% year-on-year; from January to September, the revenue of the express delivery industry increased by 8.9% year-on-year, while the revenue per parcel decreased by 7.1% year-on-year. 2) E-commerce express delivery: In September 2025, the revenue per parcel of Yuantong/Yunda/Shentong increased by 1.38%/0.50%/4.95% year-on-year, respectively; from January to September, the revenue per parcel decreased by -4.9%/-5.7%/-2.0% year-on-year, respectively. 3) Direct operating express delivery: In September 2025, the revenue per parcel of Shunfeng decreased by 13.3% year-on-year, and from January to September, it decreased by 13.0% year-on-year. Guotai Haitong believes that the narrowing of the year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decrease in revenue per parcel in September reflects an easing of price competition under the guidance of anti-"internal surging" in the industry. In early July, the State Post Bureau emphasized its clear opposition to "internal surging" competition, and at the end of July, it held a symposium for express delivery companies, requiring them to ensure the smooth operation of their networks and the stability of grassroots outlets. According to Rogo, in July, Yiwu first required an increase in the minimum price by about 0.2 yuan; in August, several places in Guangdong followed suit with an increase in the minimum price of about 0.4 yuan, higher than Yiwu. This round of anti-"internal surging" will continue to deepen from top to bottom, and subsequent measures may follow suit. In the short term, the anti-"internal surging" policy will alleviate competitive pressures, but more importantly, it will continue to safeguard benign competition in the medium to long term, benefiting the natural concentration of the industry. Investment recommendation The "anti-internal surging" policy will effectively alleviate industry competition pressure, and it is expected that the profitability of e-commerce express delivery will start to recover in the second half of the year. Future profitability will depend on the sustainability of price increases, so it is recommended to closely monitor the regulatory efforts of the postal administration. Continued optimism towards the timely express industry leaders with confirmed earnings growth, as well as opportunities for valuation recovery in e-commerce express delivery profitability. Maintain a recommendation to increase holdings in S.F. Holding (002352.SZ), and related assets such as YTO Express Group (600233.SH), ZTO Express (02057), STO Express (01519), and YUNDA Holding Group (002120.SZ). Risk warning Risks of economic fluctuations, deterioration of price competition, policy risks, fluctuations in oil prices, etc.