Concept stock tracking in the Hong Kong stock market | Metal prices continue to rise, institutions predict that copper will once again face a supply shortage in the next three years (including concept stocks).

The latest data shows that the price of the main Shanghai copper futures contract has surpassed 88,300 yuan/ton, while the London LME copper price has broken through $11,000/ton, both approaching historical highs. Currently, bullish sentiment in the market is clearly at a high level. International institutions' latest forecasts indicate that copper will once again face a supply shortage in the next 3 years. Against this backdrop, the global metal copper market continues to rise, with continuous inflows of funds. Closing data on October 24th shows a significant increase in open interest for Shanghai copper futures, with a net inflow of funds of 3.871 billion yuan, while the entire non-ferrous sector attracted over 5 billion yuan in funds. Closing data on October 27th shows that Shanghai copper futures continued to increase open interest, with a net inflow of funds of 2.699 billion yuan, while the entire non-ferrous sector attracted over 3.5 billion yuan in funds. From the current situation, copper has become the commodity futures market with the largest net inflow of funds for multiple trading days. In terms of accumulated funds, as of October 27th, the accumulated funds for copper futures have reached 4.858 billion yuan, making it the second largest commodity futures variety after gold. The continuously rising copper prices confirm Goldman Sachs' forecast that "copper is the future new oil." The "triple resonance" of grid upgrades, artificial intelligence, and new energy has elevated copper to a strategic resource that affects national technological competitiveness and energy security. Meanwhile, the "black swan" event of a significant reduction in production at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine, due to a safety accident, has further exacerbated the global copper supply shortage. Codelco plans to raise the European copper surcharge to $345/ton in 2026, setting a new record high. This reflects market concerns about the tight copper supply next year. Related Hong Kong stocks of copper mining companies: CMOC Group Limited (03993): Goldman Sachs' research report has raised the company's copper production forecast for 2028 to 2030 by 30% to 1 million tons, expecting the rise in copper prices and the recovery of cobalt prices to drive an annual compound growth rate of 38% for Luomo's recurring profit from 2025 to 2026. The expected achievement of 1 million tons of copper production in 2028 and the start of production of the Cangrejos gold-copper project will drive profit growth in 2028 to 2029. ZIJIN MINING (02899): The company's copper production in the first three quarters was 830,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. The production slightly decreased compared to the previous quarter due to the flooding incident at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in Congo. The tailings dam drainage tunnel for the Juelong copper mine's Phase II project has been completed. Clearwater testing will begin, and production conditions for large quantities will be created by the end of 2025, adding 150,000 to 200,000 tons of copper production after production commences. This is the company's core source of future copper growth. MMG (01208): Significant increases in copper production at three major copper mines: Las Bambas, Khoemacau, and Kinsevere had copper production of 211,000 tons, 22,000 tons, and 25,000 tons respectively, with yoy increases of 67%, 120%, and 19%. Las BambasH1 has achieved 52.7% of the full-year production target, and the Khoemacau 130,000-ton expansion project is progressing essentially as expected, striving to complete the feasibility study by the end of the year, and the Kinsevere 80,000-ton copper cathode upgrade and expansion project's key technical indicators are close to the design parameters. JIANGXI COPPER (00358): The company is the largest shareholder of First Quantum, a mining company with copper as its main business, with proven and controlled copper resources of 35.5 million tons, operating 6 copper mines worldwide. It is widely predicted that the Panama copper mine will resume production in the second half of 2026. The annual capacity of the Panama copper mine reached 500,000 tons before shutdown, with strong profitability. From 2021 to 2023, the operating profits of the Panama copper mine were 1.43/1.05/0.83 billion US dollars. Starting in 2024, Jiangxi Copper will convert its First Quantum investment from financial instrument investment to equity accounting for long-term investments. If the Panama copper mine resumes production, it will significantly increase the company's profits.