The Chicago Fed model estimates that the US job market has cooled significantly, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.3%.

On Monday, with the federal government shutdown leading to the suspension of official labor data, the Chicago Fed's model constructed using private sector data showed that the U.S. unemployment rate in October remained around 4.3%, consistent with the August official reading, indicating further cooling in the job market but no signs of spiraling out of control. The Chicago Fed had previously estimated the unrounded unemployment rate for September as 4.34% and for August as 4.35%. Due to the absence of official September unemployment data, the model was forced to use its own "real-time estimation" from the previous month as a reference point and then estimate the level for October. The Chicago Fed warned that this practice may accumulate errors if the government shutdown lasts longer, but expects the impact to still be relatively limited in the next one to three months. The model combines data from various private sources, highly correlated with different aspects of the labor market. The Chicago Fed pointed out that the current estimates are consistent with a slight increase in unemployment insurance claims in some states that are still being reported normally, indicating a clear cooling in U.S. employment, but not yet entering a recessionary deterioration. The Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate meeting this week, with the market widely expecting another 25 basis point cut, both as an insurance measure against economic slowdown and blind spots in data risks, as well as an early hedge against potential sudden upward pressure on the unemployment rate.