Zheshang: The cold wave increased daily consumption, and power plants' purchases drove the second round of coal prices.

Zheshang released a research report stating that a "severe cold wave" is coming, heating demand is strong in the off-season, power plant inventories are gradually depleting, and there is insufficient time for replenishment. "Strict safety" constraints on supply may lead to coal prices reaching 800 yuan/ton. If heating is advanced, an additional 50 million tons of inventory may be consumed, safety incidents could affect about 4 million tons of supply, and it is expected that the supply-demand gap will widen. Some regions may face coal shortages at certain times, and power plant replenishment is expected to drive the second round of the market. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, supply and demand are expected to gradually balance, coal prices are steadily rising, and the fundamentals are positive, maintaining a "positive" rating for the industry. Zheshang's main points are as follows: Key coal mine weekly data According to data from the Chinese Coal Transportation and Sales Association, from October 17, 2025, to October 23, 2025, the daily average sales volume of coal by key monitoring enterprises was 7.34 million tons, an increase of 4.1% week-on-week and 2.8% year-on-year. Among them, thermal coal sales increased by 4.9% compared to last week, coking coal sales increased by 2.8%, and anthracite coal sales increased by 0.2%. As of October 23, 2025, the daily average production of coal by key monitoring enterprises was 7.15 million tons, an increase of 3.5% week-on-week and a decrease of 2% year-on-year; the total coal inventory of key monitoring enterprises (including port inventory) was 23.04 million tons, a decrease of 5.4% week-on-week and 18.6% year-on-year. Since the beginning of the year, on the supply side, the cumulative sales volume of coal for key monitoring enterprises was 2054.818 million tons, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year; among them, the cumulative sales volume of thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite coal decreased by -3.4%, -2.6%, and 6% respectively. On the demand side, coal consumption in the electricity and chemical industries decreased by 2.6% and increased by 15% respectively year-on-year. Molten iron production increased by 1.4% year-on-year. Thermal coal industry chain As of October 24, 2025, in terms of prices, the price index of thermal coal (Q5500k) in Bohai Rim was 684 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% week-on-week, and the China import coal procurement price index was 884 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.11% week-on-week. From the perspective of ports, the prices of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao, Huanghua Port, and Guangzhou Port rose week-on-week. In terms of production areas, the prices of thermal coal at mines in Datong and Yulin increased by 2.08% and 1.34% respectively, and the price of Inner Mongolia ERDOS Resources increased by 5.82%; the price of Newcastle coal in Australia decreased by 0.48% week-on-week. In terms of inventory, the coal inventory in Qinhuangdao was 5.5 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons week-on-week, and the total inventory of northern ports was 23.07 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons week-on-week. Coking coal industry chain As of October 24, 2025, in terms of prices, the main coking coal price at Jingtan Port was 1740 yuan/ton, an increase of 3% week-on-week, and the mining price of main coking coal in Liulin, Luoyang, and Liupanshui increased by 6.67%, 4.58%, and remained unchanged week-on-week respectively; the price of peak coking coal in Australia increased by 1.74%; the settlement price of coking coal futures was 1251.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.66% week-on-week; the price of primary metallurgical coke at major ports was 1620 yuan/ton, and the price of secondary metallurgical coke was 1420 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged week-on-week; the price of rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week. In terms of inventory, as of October 23, 2025, the inventory of coking coal was 25.56 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons week-on-week, and a decrease of 1.46 million tons year-on-year; the inventory of coking coal at Jingtan Port was 1.6719 million tons, an increase of 110,100 tons (7.05%) week-on-week; the total inventory of independent coke plants was 8.0866 million tons, an increase of 48,700 tons (0.61%) week-on-week; the available days were 12.99 days, an increase of 0.12 days week-on-week. Coal chemical industry chain As of October 24, 2025, the price of anthracite coal in Yangquan (small pieces) was 880 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week; the market price of methanol in East China was 2268.18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.86 yuan/ton week-on-week; the ex-factory price of urea in Henan (small granules) was 1570 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton week-on-week; the average price of soda ash (heavy) was 1270.63 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63 yuan/ton week-on-week; the arrival price of electric stone in East China was 2540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton week-on-week; the market price of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) in East China was 4631.92 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.08 yuan/ton week-on-week; the market price of ethylene glycol in East China (mainstream price) was 4183 yuan/ton, an increase of 87 yuan/ton week-on-week; the ex-factory price of polyethylene (PE) for Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical was 7121.66 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.32 yuan/ton week-on-week. Subject matter It is recommended to focus on flexible thermal coal companies and coking coal companies experiencing turnaround. Priority should be given to thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225.SH), China Coal Energy (601898.SH), Yankuang Energy Group (600188.SH), Guanghui Energy (600256.SH), Beijing Haohua Energy Resource (601101.SH), Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry (601001.SH), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy (600348.SH), etc.; for coking coal companies, Huaibei Mining Holdings (600985.SH), Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group (000983.SZ), Shanxi Luan Environmental Energy Dev.Co.,Ltd (601699.SH), Pingdingshan Tianan Coal. MiningCo.,Ltd. (601666.SH), etc.; and focus on coking coal companies that have seen year-on-year profit improvement such as Jinneng Science&Technology (603113.SH), Shaanxi Heimao Coking (601015.SH), Shanxi Meijin Energy (000723.SZ), CHINA RISUN GP (01907), etc. Risk warning Slowdown in overseas economy; massive release of production capacity; alternative energy sources; impact of safety incidents.