HK Stock Market Move | CHINAHONGQIAO(01378) rises over 4% to continue hitting a new high. Institutions say the global supply and demand gap for electrolytic aluminum may further expand.

CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) rose more than 4% in the afternoon, reaching a high of 28.96 Hong Kong dollars, continuing to refresh its historical high. As of the time of writing, it rose by 4.04% to 28.84 Hong Kong dollars, with a turnover of 5.66 billion Hong Kong dollars. Huatai released a research report stating that the global supply-demand gap of primary aluminum is estimated to be -591,000 tons and -843,000 tons in 2025-2026. The supply-demand gap is expected to further expand in 2026. Based on the historical data on supply and demand and prices, it is expected that by 2026, the global LME aluminum price may break through 3200 US dollars/ton or higher. At the same time, due to the strict supply constraints in China, the supply-demand imbalance is greater, so it is expected that the price difference between domestic and international markets will narrow significantly, with domestic aluminum prices showing more strength. Tianfeng, on the other hand, stated that in the context of the ongoing tight supply-demand situation, the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum industry has significantly improved, and the high profits are expected to continue. The profits of electrolytic aluminum enterprises are improving synchronously. With the limitation of domestic supply reaching a ceiling, the peak of capital expenditure for electrolytic aluminum enterprises has come to an end. Leading companies such as CHINAHONGQIAO have gradually implemented stable dividends, and the trend of overall improved dividends in the electrolytic aluminum industry this year is also very apparent. The bank believes that the current electrolytic aluminum stocks are gradually transitioning from traditional cyclicals to high-quality scarce assets with "price elasticity upside and dividend support downside".