"Super heavyweight hits the scene this week! Fed rate cut becoming more likely. Financial reports from five major tech giants and the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents are the focus of the market."

This week will be an extremely busy week for investors - the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision, a large number of companies will release their financial reports, and the White House previously announced that the US and China presidents will hold a bilateral meeting during the APEC summit. The US stock market surged last Friday and hit a historical high because the US September CPI data was lower than expected, providing more reasons for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates next week and in December. The data shows that the overall CPI in the US rose by 3.0% year-on-year in September, lower than the market's expectation of 3.1%; the overall CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, lower than the market's expectation of 0.4%. At the same time, the core CPI, which excludes volatile categories such as food and energy, rose by 3.0% year-on-year, lower than the market's expectation of 3.1%; the core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, the slowest growth rate in three months, lower than the market's expectation of 0.3%. The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision on Thursday morning Beijing time. The market is almost fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week. In addition, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will also announce their interest rate decisions on Thursday. In terms of corporate financial reports, investors will face the most important week. The five tech giants - Microsoft Corporation, Amazon.com, Inc., Apple Inc., Alphabet, Meta - will all release their financial reports this week. Investors will closely monitor whether these large tech companies can continue to deliver outstanding results amid the hype of artificial intelligence (AI). In addition, four of the world's top five energy giants - Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, Shell, and Total - will also report their performance this week. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, Verizon, and other companies will also release their latest earnings. "Rate cut on the table" According to Wall Street analysts and Federal Reserve observers, the Federal Reserve's main focus this week will be on the labor market, despite the lack of the September non-farm payroll report. Further rate cuts are almost certain. Bankrate analyst Stephen Kates said, "Despite the government shutdown leading to a lack of labor market data, the lower-than-expected CPI data should boost the confidence of the Federal Reserve, which was already inclined to cut interest rates again in October and December." Traders currently expect a 97.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week. This will lower the federal funds target rate range from the current 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%. Analysts at Bank of America Corp stated in a report last Friday, "With the lack of the September employment report, an October rate cut is almost a done deal." The report also added, "While we have not predicted another rate cut in December, if there is no new employment data before the December meeting, the Federal Reserve may lean towards another rate cut." Analysts at Bank of America Corp pointed out that since the government shutdown delayed the employment report, the labor market has "at best remained stable, and at worst slightly worsened", based on private sector data, Fed surveys, and state unemployment claims data. On the political front, the US government shutdown is increasingly linked to the labor market. Last week, federal employees who were forced to take unpaid leave due to the shutdown missed their first paycheck. The current US government shutdown is now the second longest in history, second only to the 35-day shutdown in 2018. Trade issues back on the negotiation table The White House announced last Thursday that the US and Chinese presidents would hold a bilateral meeting during the APEC summit. Theoretically, this meeting will provide an opportunity for the two leaders to negotiate and resolve the ongoing trade war. However, market uncertainty is unlikely to dissipate immediately. Thierry Wizman, global forex and rate strategist at Macquarie Group, stated, "We do not believe that there will be significant enough agreements between the US and China in the next few days to alleviate traders' concerns." In addition, it is worth noting that the US Treasury Department last week added Russian oil giants Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC to the blacklist. This is the latest move by the Trump administration to pressure Russian President Putin to end the war in Ukraine. According to estimates, these two oil companies are Russia's two largest oil producers, accounting for nearly half of Russia's total crude oil exports. The average daily export volume in the first half of this year was around 2.2 million barrels. As a result of this news, oil prices surged last Thursday. If oil prices remain high, historical experience shows that oil refiners who refine crude oil into gasoline often pass on the costs to downstream consumers. This means that after months of falling oil prices, US consumers may once again face rising oil prices. In addition to the possibility of rising oil prices, economists at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. predict that companies will pass on about 70% of the costs of tariffs to consumers, meaning that the prices of daily goods will further increase.