The narrative of a gold bull market is once again reinforced! This government shutdown in the United States is likely the longest in history, with market bets that it will remain closed until mid-November.

The U.S. government shutdown has entered its fourth week, yet there is still no sign of any end to the shutdown. The latest data from Polymarket, the world's largest paid prediction market, shows that this shutdown will continue and is highly likely to become the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history. Despite the significant impact of a prolonged shutdown on federal employees, investors in the stock market are seemingly unconcerned about the government shutdown, while gold continues to reach new highs on the back of the shutdown. Entering its fourth week, there are no signs of the U.S. government shutdown drama coming to an end; if the paid prediction market bets are correct, it will easily become the longest shutdown in U.S. history. The U.S. federal government "closed its doors" on October 1. Based on a 22-day cycle, this shutdown is approaching the longest shutdown in U.S. history, which occurred during Trump's first term - from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, and is short of surpassing the length of the longest shutdown by less than two weeks. Trump is on track to surpass the length of the shutdown from his first term during his second term. On Thursday, users on Polymarket made paid bets with real money, and the odds show that bettors generally believe that this latest government shutdown will be the longest on record. Bets worth nearly $2 million show that 40% of bettors believe this shutdown will last until November 16 or later - meaning the shutdown will exceed 47 days, far longer than the previous record of 35 days. Additionally, 16% of bettors believe it will continue until November 4-7, and 13% believe it will continue until November 13-16. The above is a prediction chart from Polymarket on when the federal government shutdown is expected to end. Polymarket claims to be the "world's largest prediction market" and has received investment of up to $2 billion from ICE (parent company of the NYSE), with its latest valuation exceeding $10 billion. As of mid-October, Polymarket's weekly paid bet volume of around $1 billion far surpasses other paid betting platforms. Another large paid betting platform, Kalshi, also shows that paid users generally expect this government shutdown to continue until at least November. The volume of bets on the shutdown on the platform has reached $17 million, with bettors believing there is a 77% chance that it will last more than 35 days and continue until November 15. The probability of it lasting at least 40 days is around 56%. This federal government shutdown has caused significant disruptions, especially for some federal employees who have been officially laid off or forced to take unpaid leave, while others, such as air traffic controllers and TSA security personnel, continue to work without pay. Due to the inability to pay salaries, some air traffic controllers have gone on strike, causing major flight delays in the United States. In terms of the stock market, the impact is minimal; on the other hand, the U.S. earnings season has attracted global investors' attention, overshadowing the negative impact of the government shutdown. Investors are betting on a strong earnings season that exceeds expectations, which is expected to catalyze the continued bull market trajectory in U.S. stocks since 2023. At the same time, the AI investment craze continues to drive market gains, as investors anticipate the earnings disclosures of major tech companies with the highest market values and hold high expectations for more performance data proving AI-driven prosperity. For the gold trading market, the massive potential losses caused by the U.S. government shutdown could serve as a significant catalyst. Last week, a senior official at the U.S. Treasury Department stated that the two-week-long federal government shutdown could potentially result in an economic output loss of up to $15 billion per week. However, for investors who favor gold, the huge potential losses caused by the U.S. government shutdown are undoubtedly a major positive catalyst for gold prices, which have surged over 60% this year, outperforming the MSCI global stock market benchmark index and reaching historic highs. The latest news of the U.S. federal government shutdown causing a potential loss of $15 billion per week reinforces the narratives of safe-haven and interest rate cut expectations, resonating with geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and thus adds to the logic of "gold continuing to reach new highs." It is beyond doubt that an extended shutdown will significantly amplify global macroeconomic uncertainty and strengthen the expectation path for Fed interest rate cuts, coupled with the ongoing U.S.-China trade friction, directly boosting demand for safe-haven gold. With the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in September and expectations for a new round of interest rate cuts/easing cycle, the pressure of actual upward interest rates is easing, the U.S. dollar is significantly weakening, greatly reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Coupled with growing concerns about the U.S. government potentially being stuck in a prolonged shutdown, as well as the tense U.S.-China trade situation, this collectively boosts the willingness of global investors and central banks to allocate to gold. Wall Street financial giant Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecast for the spot gold price in December 2026 from $4,300 per ounce to $4,900 per ounce. Another major Wall Street bank, Bank of America, has provided a more aggressive forecast. Strategists from Bank of America suggest that the price of gold is likely to reach $6,000 in the spring of next year.