JPMorgan continues to be bullish on gold: It is expected to reach $5055 by the end of 2026.

JPMorgan analysts maintained a bullish outlook on gold on Thursday, predicting that by the fourth quarter of 2026, the price of gold will rise to an average of $5055 per ounce, up about 15% from the record high of $4381 set on Monday. The bank pointed out in its report that this forecast is based on the assumption that global investor and central bank quarterly gold purchases will remain around 566 tons by 2026, serving as the core driver of the rising gold price. Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan's global commodity strategist, said, "Gold remains our most confident long position this year. With the Fed entering a rate-cutting cycle, we believe there is further upside potential for gold prices." Gregory Shearer, JPMorgan's head of base metals and precious metals strategy, added that the momentum driving the rise in gold prices comes from a combination of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, stagnant inflation concerns, questions about the Fed's independence, and broader demand for currency hedging. Regarding the trend of the US dollar, JPMorgan emphasized that the current market trend is "not a story of the dissolution of the dollar system or a sharp devaluation of the dollar, but rather a phenomenon of asset diversification." The report mentioned that overseas investors holding US assets are gradually shifting a small portion of their allocations to gold. Analysts also pointed out that the recent consolidation in the gold market is healthy. Kaneva said that this pullback reflects the market digesting the rapid rise since August. She added, "If you are now paralyzed by fear, it is actually normal because the gold price has risen too rapidly... This is actually a very pure logic: there are many buyers and almost no sellers." Kaneva reiterated her long-term target price of $6000 per ounce (by 2028) and emphasized that gold should be viewed with a multi-year perspective. Gold spot prices have continued to hit new record highs this year, with the largest increase in nearly 57%, potentially achieving the best annual performance since 1979. During the US session on Thursday, gold prices rebounded by over 1% after two consecutive days of decline, as geopolitical risks escalated again boosting safe-haven buying, while investors also awaited key US inflation data to be released on Friday. Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, said, "All the fundamental factors driving the rise in gold prices this year still exist. Today's rise is partly due to buying on dips, while escalating trade and geopolitical tensions also helped push gold prices higher." President Trump announced new major sanctions on two large Russian oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, and more than 30 of their subsidiaries. Oil exports are one of Russia's largest sources of income. Market attention is now turning to the US CPI report scheduled to be released on Friday, which could be the most crucial inflation signal before the Fed's policy meeting next week. This article is reprinted from "Financial Association"; GMTEight Editor: Li Fo.