BHP Warns of Intensifying U.S.–China Rivalry Over Critical Minerals

BHP Group Chairman Ken MacKenzie cautioned on Thursday that the ongoing competition between the United States and China for dominance in critical-minerals supply chains has escalated beyond traditional trade dynamics, calling it a form of “muscle-flexing” between the world’s two largest economies. His comments come as governments and corporations race to secure access to essential raw materials needed for electric vehicles, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing.

Speaking at a mining industry forum in Sydney, MacKenzie said the strategic competition for materials such as lithium, copper, nickel, and rare earths has reached an inflection point. Both Washington and Beijing are using trade policy, investment screening, and state-backed funding to control the flow of these minerals—resources vital to the global transition toward clean energy technologies.

According to BHP, the growing intervention of governments in commodity markets poses both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, strong policy support and funding from the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act have accelerated mining investment in North America. On the other, rising protectionism and the weaponization of trade—seen in China’s export restrictions on rare earths and graphite—are fragmenting global supply chains and increasing geopolitical risk.

MacKenzie warned that companies must now navigate a new reality where “economic security” and “resource independence” drive national strategies as much as profit or efficiency. He emphasized that mining companies need to maintain balanced relationships with both superpowers to avoid being caught in the middle of the escalating rivalry.

The remarks highlight a deepening concern across the resource sector that global energy security is becoming politicized. As the clean-energy transition accelerates, demand for critical minerals is expected to triple by 2035. However, BHP and other major miners argue that fragmented markets, export bans, and regulatory uncertainty could hinder the long-term investment needed to meet that demand.

For investors, the growing geopolitical tug-of-war over resources could reshape global capital flows. Countries rich in minerals—such as Australia, Chile, and Indonesia—are now strategic battlegrounds, attracting billions in foreign investment but also facing mounting policy pressure to align with one superpower over the other.

BHP’s message was clear: the competition for critical minerals is no longer just economic—it’s geopolitical, and the industry must adapt to a world where supply security may trump market efficiency.