Guotai Haitong: Maintain "buy" rating on GCL TECH (03800), with continued efforts to resist internal turnover.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that they maintain a "buy" rating on GCL TECH (03800) and expect the company's book value per share for the years 2025-2027 to be 1.17/1.22/1.28 RMB respectively. Referring to comparable companies, a price-to-book ratio of 1.2xPB is given for the year 2026, with a target price of 1.59 RMB (converted at the exchange rate of 1 Hong Kong dollar = 0.92 RMB). The company announced that in Q3 of 2025, the profit from the photovoltaic material business is expected to be around 960 million RMB (including an after-tax gain from the sale of a joint venture company of about 640 million RMB); the unaudited adjusted EBITDA is expected to be around 1.41 billion RMB. The report states that the price of polysilicon has rebounded and the initiatives to counter "inward circulation" are starting to show effects. In Q3 of 2025, the average selling price of granular silicon (including tax) was 42.12 RMB/kg, an increase of 9.2 RMB/kg compared to the previous quarter. According to Infolink Consulting public account, the average price of granular silicon reached 50 RMB/kg on October 15th (assuming a tax rate of 13%, the price excluding tax is 44.25 RMB/kg), indicating that there is still room for an increase from the company's average price in Q3 of 2025. Looking ahead to Q4 of 2025 and 2026, it is expected that prices will continue to rise steadily, driving the profitability of the company's polysilicon business. The report mentions that in Q3 of 2025, the average cash production cost of granular silicon was 24.16 RMB/kg (including R&D), a decrease of 1.15 RMB/kg compared to the previous quarter. Granular silicon production capacity has a leading advantage in energy consumption, fully complying with the new energy consumption standard for silicon polysilicon and germanium units products released by the National Standards Commission on September 16, 2025. On October 10th, the company announced a subscription-related matter, planning to use the proceeds to carry out mergers and acquisitions, in order to acquire target companies or assets in mainland China to increase polysilicon production capacity. We believe that industry consolidation is conducive to achieving a balance between supply and demand, further promoting the stabilization and rebound of prices.