Zhongtai: Maintaining a "buy" rating on POP MART (09992) IP industry is thriving and the scarcity of industry leaders is evident.

Zhongtai released a research report, maintaining a "buy" rating for POP MART (09992). Based on the business situation in the third quarter, considering the company's strong IP momentum and ample overseas expansion opportunities, it is estimated that the company's revenue for 2025-2027 will be 400.62/580.21/778.14 billion yuan (previously 331.17/469.61/634.87 billion yuan), with adjusted net profits of 140.02/203.61/276.87 billion yuan (previously 115.35/181.06/266.90 billion yuan). As a pioneer and leader in trendy culture and commercialization, IP is the core of the company's business. The company has established an integrated platform covering the entire toy industry chain, including artist discovery, IP operation, customer engagement, and the promotion of trendy toy culture. Main points of Zhongtai: Event: Company releases business situation for 3Q25 In the third quarter of 2025, unaudited overall revenue increased by 245%-250% compared to the same period in 2024. Specifically: revenue in China increased by 185%-190% year-on-year; overseas revenue increased by 365%-370% year-on-year. Performance of various channels in China: offline channel increased by 130%-135% year-on-year; online channel increased by 300%-305% year-on-year. Overseas markets continue to grow rapidly: Asia-Pacific region increased by 170%-175% year-on-year; Americas increased by 1265%-1270% year-on-year; Europe and other regions increased by 735%-740% year-on-year. Review of the third quarter, strong online growth in China, continued high growth in overseas markets In the domestic market, the company's online growth rate in the third quarter exceeded 300%, far higher than the 212% in the first half of the year. The bank expects this to mainly be due to the continued high growth in the box drawing channel with rich gameplay, the development of new channels such as Xiaohongshu live rooms, and the impact of the confirmation rhythm of LABUBU's large single product pre-sale revenue. In overseas markets, the Americas market is expected to experience monthly fluctuations due to replenishment rhythms; the European market is expected to focus on expanding into blank markets such as Southern Europe, running smoothly overall; the Southeast Asian market's largest global flagship store landed in Bangkok, Thailand on August 8th, providing overall support. Looking forward to the future, high growth is expected in the short, medium, and long term Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the Chinese market will enter a large e-commerce promotion period, and the North American market will also start the shopping season with Halloween, with the release of new holiday products and the replenishment of old flagship products expected to continue driving high growth in revenue. Looking ahead to 2026, the logic of improving store efficiency in China and the Asia-Pacific market is smooth, new formats are also continuously incubating and advancing; store openings and various cooperation methods in the Americas market are expected to contribute to performance jointly, and there is vast space for store openings in Europe and other markets.