Soochow: Energy storage in September and October exceeded expectations, wind power bidding improved, and the photovoltaic anti-dumping investigation continued to advance.

Soochow released a research report stating that independent energy storage is the new energy complement to storage, and with the gradual introduction of capacity and electricity price policies, domestic energy storage is expected to achieve strong growth. From January to September 2025, domestic energy storage bids totaled 102GWh, a year-on-year increase of 30%, indicating a strong bidding activity. In September, accompanied by a shortage of battery supply and demand, energy storage equipment prices have been steadily increasing, with winning bid prices hitting a bottom and rebounding. Investment recommendations: Solar Energy Storage: [1] Inverters and supports in high demand: Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ), Ningbo Deye Technology, Sineng Electric, Arctech Solar Holding, Ginlong Technologies, Hoymiles Power Electronics Inc., Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric, Jiangsu Tongrun Equipment Technology, Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology, Kehua Data Co., Ltd., SolaX Power Network Technology, focusing on Yuneng Technology; [2] Photovoltaic industry leaders benefiting from supply-side reforms and cost advantages: Tongwei Co., Ltd (600438.SH), Flat Glass Group, Hangzhou First Applied Material, etc., with a focus on GCL TECH, and component industry leaders with strong channel advantages: Jinko Solar, CSI Solar Co., Ltd., JA Solar Technology, Trina Solar Co., Ltd., LONGi Green Energy Technology, Hengdian Group DMEGC Magnetics, among others; [3] Leaders in new technologies: LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012.SH), Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy, Changzhou Fusion New Material, Wuxi Dk Electronic Materials Co., Ltd., with a focus on TCL Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology, Suzhou YourBest New-type Materials, Yangling Metron New Material. Key points from Soochow: Domestic installations in August decreased by 55.29%, with weak terminal demand support; stable overseas demand growth. In August 2025, there was a 55.29% decrease in new installations, totaling 7.36GW; installations from January to August reached 230.61GW, a year-on-year increase of 65%. In September and October, the focus of the domestic photovoltaic industry is on: 1) the implementation of detailed rules based on National Document 136 by various provinces and the commencement of the first round of auctions, and 2) achieving high-quality development in the photovoltaic sector by breaking away from "internal competition." Meanwhile, standards related to energy consumption of polycrystalline silicon are being revised, and existing standards are becoming stricter. In the overseas market, component exports in August totaled 25.02GW, with a year-on-year increase of 29.7%/21.6%. From January to August, cumulative component exports totaled 166.09GW, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.03%. In Q2 of 2025, the US added 7.5GW of new photovoltaic installations, a year-on-year increase of 9.83%. There is currently no support in demand, but industry prices are rebounding. In September 2025, polysilicon production was about 130,000 tons, with a total social inventory estimated at 440,000 to 450,000 tons. The weekly average price of N-type materials was 51.7 yuan/kg. Due to oversupply, there is mounting inventory pressure, which could further exacerbate the situation. Silicon wafer companies have mostly completed price adjustments to help profitability. As of September 24th, the average price of monocrystalline silicon wafers was 1.35 yuan/piece, with a monthly increase of 8.00%. The price of silicon wafers has started to rise slightly. Cell production is steadily increasing, with the price of 182mm monocrystalline PERC double-sided TOPCon modules at 0.039 USD/0.31 yuan per watt on September 24th, with a comparable month-on-month increase of +5.08%. Overall module production slightly increased month-on-month, but weakened market demand has led to production expectations being adjusted downward. As of September 26th, the price of 182mm double-sided TOPCon modules and 210mm HJT double-glass modules was approximately 0.69/0.83 yuan per watt, representing a month-on-month increase of +1.17%/stable. Despite these fluctuations, many parts of the photovoltaic industry chain remain in a state of deficit. The prices of film and glass have remained stable, with a possibility of a slight decline after a simultaneous increase in module production; glass prices have started to rise amid production growth and the potential for further increases. The domestic and international energy storage markets are growing, with innovative energy storage models in China. 1) In the United States, from January to August 2025, cumulative installations reached 8,043MW, a year-on-year increase of 33%, corresponding to 25.1GWh, a year-on-year increase of 46%; policy risks are basically mitigated. 2) In China, independent energy storage complements new energy storage, and with the gradual introduction of capacity and electricity price policies, domestic energy storage is expected to achieve strong growth. From January to September 2025, domestic energy storage bids reached 102GWh, a year-on-year increase of 30%, indicating a strong bidding activity. In September, accompanied by a shortage of battery supply and demand, energy storage equipment prices have been steadily increasing, with winning bid prices hitting a bottom and rebounding. 3) From January to August 2025, China's exports of inverters to Europe, Australia, Africa, and Pakistan were $2.4 billion, $260 million, $440 million, and $260 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of +4.5%, +56.0%, +30.4%, and -24.3%. 4) In Australia, the household energy storage policy subsidies began in July, resulting in a significant increase in Chinese exports of inverters to Australia in July and August. Q3 wind power is on the rise, with high expectations for offshore wind development. From January to August 2025, wind power installations totaled 58GW, a year-on-year increase of 72%, with a continued increase in delivery of offshore and onshore wind power projects in Q3. From January to September 2025, onshore wind power bids totaled 79GW, with a year-on-year increase of 7%; offshore wind power bids totaled 8.3GW, with a year-on-year increase of 9%. Progress has been smooth in the Jiangsu and Guangdong offshore wind projects, with high expectations for deep-sea wind development. Risk warnings include increased competition, unexpected policy changes, limitations in grid integration, lower-than-expected new energy installations, and insufficient supply of raw materials.