CMSC: Maintains "Strong Buy" investment rating for POP MART (09992), expects release of 2025 third quarter report soon.

CMSC released a research report stating that it maintains a "strongly recommended" investment rating for POP MART (09992). Considering 1) the overseas organizational structure promotes overseas healthy and continuous growth; 2) the IP products such as "Elf Corps" LABUBU/Star People have good momentum, with the profit forecast for 2025-2027 being raised, with adjusted net profits of 109.6/149.2/183.1 billion yuan respectively (previous values were 103.7/142.1/173.6 billion yuan), corresponding to adjusted PE ratios of 32.3x/23.8x/19.4x for 2025-2027. The company is expected to release its third quarter business performance for 2025 in the near future, taking into account the strong momentum of new product launches and continuous growth across channels. Assuming that the profit from 25Q3 accounts for 27.5% of the annual adjusted profit (assuming that the profit margin in 24Q3 is the same as in 24Q4, the corresponding profit ratio is 29.8%, taking into account the impact of the pace of new product launches and replenishments in 24H1, assuming a decrease compared to the same period last year; assuming that the profit margin in 25Q2 is the same as in 25Q1, the corresponding ratio is 25.9%), assuming an adjusted profit margin of 33%, the bank predicts that the company's revenue in 25Q3 will increase by 154.2% year-on-year, approximately 8.9% quarter-on-quarter, with an absolute value of 91.7 billion yuan; the adjusted net profit is expected to increase by 198.6% year-on-year, with an absolute value of 30.3 billion yuan (only the operating income growth range is disclosed in the third quarter, and the absolute value and profit year-on-year forecast are for reference only).