Optimistic trade expectations unable to overcome RSI pressure? Gold, after repeatedly hitting new highs, is now trapped in high-level oscillation.

Despite the market warming up to the optimistic expectations of easing global trade tensions and the imminent restart of the US government, the price of gold continues to fluctuate at historically high levels, indicating sustained strong demand for safe-haven assets. In intraday trading on Monday, the price of gold surged 3.1% to $4381.52 per ounce, hitting a record high. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest that the sharp rally since August may have been excessive, making it difficult for such a fervent rally to occur again. Market focus is on the latest developments in US-China relations: US President Trump stated that he will "get along" with China until both sides return to the negotiating table, but reiterated that if no agreement is reached by November 1, tariffs will be imposed on Chinese goods. It is worth noting that the Director of the US National Economic Council, Kudlow, hinted that the US government shutdown may end within the week. Precious metals have been on a continuous rise this year, with gold rising for the ninth consecutive week with a cumulative increase of over 65% since 2025, mainly driven by central bank gold purchases, ETF inflows, geopolitical risks, rising government debt, and questioning of the independence of the Federal Reserve. Silver has performed even better, with a year-to-date increase of over 80%. In addition to the macroeconomic risk aversion logic shared with gold, the historic supply shortage in the London market has pushed its price higher - the current benchmark price for silver is still higher than the New York futures price, although the price difference between the two markets has narrowed from $3 last week to about $1, arbitrage opportunities still exist. At the time of writing, spot gold has slightly fallen by 0.11% to $4351.70 per ounce, while the US dollar index has dropped by 0.1%. Silver prices have dropped by nearly 1%, platinum has slightly risen, and palladium remains stable.