Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) stock price hits a new high for the year, Wall Street cheers: The long-awaited iPhone upgrade cycle has finally arrived!

On Monday, Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) stock price hit the first historical closing record of 2025. Prior to this, Loop Capital upgraded its stock rating from "hold" to "buy," becoming the latest institution to be optimistic about the positive trend in iPhone demand. Data shows that Apple Inc. stock price rose 3.94% on Monday, closing at $262.24, surpassing its all-time high since December of last year. Throughout this year, Apple Inc. has been a standout underperformer in the S&P 500 index, with a cumulative decline of 31% at its low point in April. However, this iPhone manufacturer has since rebounded strongly by over 50%, finally achieving a positive return for the year by late September. Behind the recent strength in stock price is a signal of stronger-than-expected demand for Apple Inc.'s latest iPhone series, which also boosts market confidence in the upcoming "long-awaited upgrade cycle." Last weekend, analysis by Counterpoint Research showed that in the U.S. and Chinese markets, the sales of the iPhone 17 series in the first 10 days of its release was 14% higher than the iPhone 16 series. Loop Capital analyst Ananda Baruah wrote in the rating upgrade report, "We are currently at the beginning of a long-awaited upgrade cycle for Apple Inc. in the market." He believes that this trend "is driven by both upgrade demand from users and the consumption momentum generated by the new design cycle." The analyst also raised Apple Inc.'s target stock price to $315, the highest on Wall Street, with a potential increase of about 20% from Monday's closing price. Previously, investors had high hopes for the upgrade effect of the iPhone 16 release, but market expectations were ultimately disappointed as its heavily promoted AI functions were delayed or failed to materialize. Now, more institutions are moving towards a positive stance besides Loop Capital. Evercore ISI has included Apple Inc. in its "tactically outperforming the market" list, citing iPhone demand data indicating that this upgrade cycle may exceed normal levels. Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes pointed out that Apple Inc. is "regaining growth momentum" by "responding to doubts with real actions" and is optimistic about the warming of the Chinese market and the "overall momentum of new products," suggesting that upcoming products could be new catalysts. However, not all institutions believe that the initial enthusiasm for the iPhone 17 series is enough to support Apple Inc.'s current valuation. The expected P/E ratio of Apple Inc.'s stock price has exceeded 32 times, far above its 10-year average level (22 times). Additionally, Apple Inc.'s stock price has a premium relative to the Nasdaq 100 index and is the most highly valued company among the "Big Seven" except for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US). Furthermore, Apple Inc. is not as popular among large tech stocks compared to its peers. Even with Loop Capital's rating upgrade, less than 60% of analysts have a "buy" rating for Apple Inc., which is only higher than Tesla, Inc. among the "Big Seven". Jefferies Financial Group Inc. analyst Edison Lee is currently one of only four analysts who have a "sell" rating on Apple Inc. He warned last weekend that the sales momentum of the iPhone 17 series is continuing to slow down. Earlier this month, Lee had downgraded his rating on Apple Inc. to "underperform the market" and pointed out that the market's expectations for the "foldable screen iPhone" from Apple Inc. are "too high" - this model may not only be priced high, but may also "erode sales of the Pro Max model".