China’s GDP Grew 5.2% Year‑on‑Year in the First Three Quarters

According to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 20, China’s GDP reached ¥101.5036 trillion in the first three quarters, representing a year‑on‑year increase of 5.2% at constant prices.

Under the leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Xi Jinping at its core, and guided by the overarching policy of pursuing stability while seeking progress, authorities across regions and sectors have implemented the central government’s policy directives, advanced the new development paradigm, and enacted more proactive macroeconomic measures. Efforts to strengthen the domestic circulation and facilitate coordinated domestic‑international circulation have supported resilience in the national economy, with steady supply growth, broadly stable employment and price conditions, the emergence of new growth drivers, and effective protections for livelihoods, demonstrating robust adaptability and momentum in economic performance.
Preliminary estimates show GDP at ¥101.5036 trillion for the first three quarters. By sector, value added in the primary industry was ¥5.8061 trillion, up 3.8%; the secondary industry contributed ¥36.4020 trillion, up 4.9%; and the tertiary industry amounted to ¥59.2955 trillion, up 5.4%. Quarterly growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3. On a quarter‑on‑quarter basis, Q3 GDP rose 1.1%.

Agricultural output remained solid, with crop farming value added up 3.6% year‑on‑year. Summer grain and early rice production totaled 178.25 million tonnes, an increase of 0.1%. Autumn grain production held broadly steady, and annual grain output is expected to remain ample. Total meat production in the first three quarters reached 73.12 million tonnes, up 3.8%; pork, beef and poultry production rose by 3.0%, 3.3% and 7.2% respectively, while mutton declined by 4.3%. Milk output rose 0.7% and egg production increased 0.2%. By the end of Q3, the live pig inventory stood at 436.8 million heads, up 2.3%, and cumulative pig slaughter totaled 529.92 million heads, up 1.8%.

Industrial production expanded at a robust pace, with value added of enterprises above designated size increasing 6.2% year‑on‑year. Mining rose 5.8%, manufacturing increased 6.8%, and utilities (electricity, heat, gas and water) grew 2.0%. Equipment manufacturing and high‑technology manufacturing led gains, up 9.7% and 9.6% respectively, outperforming the aggregate industrial growth rate. By ownership type, state‑controlled enterprises grew 4.6%, joint‑stock firms 6.7%, foreign and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan invested enterprises 4.1%, and private enterprises 6.1%. Output of key advanced products showed strong increases: 3D printing equipment rose 40.5%, industrial robots 29.8%, and new energy vehicles 29.7%. In September, industrial value added rose 6.5% year‑on‑year and 0.64% month‑on‑month. The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points, while the business expectations index stood at 54.1, also up 0.4 points. From January to August, total profits of large industrial enterprises reached ¥4.693 trillion, a year‑on‑year rise of 0.9%.

The services sector maintained steady expansion, with value added up 5.4%. Information transmission, software and information technology services grew 11.2%; leasing and business services rose 9.2%; transportation, warehousing and postal services increased 5.8%; and wholesale and retail grew 5.6%. In September, the national service production index rose 5.6%, with strong contributions from IT services, finance, leasing and business services, and transportation and warehousing. Revenue of large service enterprises increased 7.7% in the January–August period. The September service business activity index was 50.1 and the expectations index 56.3. Several subsectors, including postal and telecommunications services and financial services, registered activity indices above the 60.0 high‑growth threshold.

Retail sales continued to recover, with total social consumer goods retail sales reaching ¥36.5877 trillion, up 4.5% year‑on‑year. Urban retail sales amounted to ¥31.6838 trillion, up 4.4%, while rural retail reached ¥4.9039 trillion, up 4.6%. Goods retail sales were ¥32.4888 trillion, up 4.6%, and catering revenue was ¥4.0989 trillion, up 3.3%. Sales of essential and upgrading consumer goods showed notable strength: grain/oil/food, sports and entertainment goods, and jewelry retail rose 10.4%, 19.6% and 11.5% respectively. The trade‑in policy for consumer replacement continued to support demand for household appliances, furniture, communications equipment and cultural and office supplies, which recorded year‑on‑year increases of 25.3%, 21.3%, 20.5% and 19.9%. Online retail sales reached ¥11.2830 trillion, up 9.8%, with physical goods online retail at ¥9.1528 trillion, up 6.5%, accounting for 25.0% of total retail. In September, retail sales grew 3.0% year‑on‑year but contracted 0.18% month‑on‑month. Service retail expanded by 5.2%, with robust increases in cultural and leisure services, communications services, tourism and transportation services.

Fixed‑asset investment (excluding households) recorded ¥37.1535 trillion in the first three quarters, down 0.5% year‑on‑year. Excluding real estate development, fixed‑asset investment rose 3.0%. Infrastructure investment increased 1.1%, manufacturing investment grew 4.0%, while real estate development investment declined 13.9%. New commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters, down 5.5%, with sales value at ¥6.3040 trillion, down 7.9%. Investment by sector showed primary industry up 4.6%, secondary industry up 6.3% and tertiary industry down 4.3%.

Private investment fell 3.1% overall but, excluding real estate development, rose 2.1%. Investment in high‑technology industries recorded strong gains: information services up 33.1%, aerospace equipment manufacturing up 20.6%, and computer and office equipment manufacturing up 7.4%. Fixed‑asset investment in September edged down 0.07% month‑on‑month.

Foreign trade continued to expand and optimize in structure. Total imports and exports amounted to ¥33.6078 trillion, up 4.0%, with exports at ¥19.9450 trillion, up 7.1%, and imports at ¥13.6629 trillion, down 0.2%. Private enterprises’ foreign trade increased 7.8%, accounting for 57.0% of total trade, up 2.0 percentage points year‑on‑year. Trade with Belt and Road partner countries rose 6.2%. Exports of electromechanical products grew 9.6%, comprising 60.5% of total exports. In September, total trade reached ¥4.0436 trillion, up 8.0%, with exports of ¥2.3445 trillion, up 8.4%, and imports of ¥1.6991 trillion, up 7.5%.

Price dynamics showed core consumer inflation gradually firming while producer price declines narrowed. The national CPI fell 0.1% year‑on‑year for the first three quarters. Food, tobacco and alcohol prices fell 0.8%, clothing rose 1.5%, housing rose 0.1%, household goods and services rose 0.6%, transportation and communication fell 2.8%, education and culture rose 0.8%, healthcare rose 0.5%, and other goods and services rose 7.4%. Among food items, fresh vegetable prices declined 7.9%, pork 2.9%, and grain 1.2%, while fresh fruit rose 1.2%. In September, CPI fell 0.3% year‑on‑year and rose 0.1% month‑on‑month. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.6% for the first three quarters, expanding 0.2 percentage points compared with the first half; in September core CPI rose 1.0%, up 0.1 percentage point from August.

Producer prices for industrial products declined 2.8% year‑on‑year in the first three quarters. In September, the PPI fell 2.3% year‑on‑year, narrowing the decline by 0.6 percentage points from August and remaining flat month‑on‑month. Purchase prices for industrial producers fell 3.2% year‑on‑year, with September down 3.1%, a 0.9 point narrowing from the prior month and a 0.1% month‑on‑month rise.

Labor market indicators remained generally stable, with the national urban surveyed unemployment rate averaging 5.2% for the first three quarters. The September urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage point from August. Surveyed unemployment for local household labor was 5.3% and for migrant household labor 4.9%; migrant agricultural household labor recorded 4.7%. The rate across 31 major cities was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage point. Average weekly working hours for enterprise employees were 48.6. By the end of Q3, the number of rural migrant workers stood at 191.87 million, up 0.9%.

Per capita disposable income rose steadily. For the first three quarters, national per capita disposable income reached ¥32,509, a nominal increase of 5.1% and a real increase of 5.2% after price effects. Urban per capita disposable income was ¥42,991, up 4.4% nominally and 4.5% in real terms; rural per capita disposable income was ¥17,686, up 5.7% nominally and 6.0% in real terms. By income source, wage income, net business income, net property income and net transfer income rose 5.4%, 5.3%, 1.7% and 5.3% respectively. The median per capita disposable income was ¥27,149, a nominal increase of 4.5%.

Overall, the continuity of policies to stabilize employment and sustain economic momentum has yielded broadly steady outcomes across major macroeconomic indicators, and progress toward high‑quality development has been evident. Nevertheless, the economy still faces multiple risks and uncertainties, particularly externally, and the foundation for a stronger and more sustained recovery requires continued consolidation. Going forward, policy should remain guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, ensure proactive macro policy implementation, and focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets and expectations to advance high‑quality development and sustain healthy economic growth.