In the fourth quarter, the "Standard Chartered Hong Kong SME Leading Business Index" composite business index rebounded to 44.5, reaching a new high for the year.

The Hong Kong Productivity Council announced the "Standard Chartered Hong Kong SME Leading Business Index" for the fourth quarter of 2025. Eric Chan, Chief Economist of Standard Chartered Greater China, said, "After falling to the lowest point in 13 quarters (40.5) in the third quarter, the Standard Chartered SME Index rebounded to the highest point of the year in the fourth quarter at 44.5. The significant increase in the "Global Economy" sub-index (+12.0) was the main factor. Long-term confidence in SME business operations is stabilizing. However, short-term challenges still exist, as both the "Business Performance" and "Profit Performance" indexes have increased from the previous quarter but remain low at around 40 points. The survey results show that the comprehensive business index for this quarter has reached its highest level since 2025, reflecting a significant rebound in SME confidence in the business environment. All five sub-indexes have risen, with the "Global Economy" index stopping its three-quarter decline to record a strong rebound in this quarter (32.6, +12.0), returning to near the level of the fourth quarter of 2024. The "Profit Performance" (39.0) and "Business Performance" (40.6) sub-indexes also rose by 4.9 and 4.0, respectively. Additionally, there were slight increases in "Recruitment Intention" and "Investment Intention," both returning to the neutral level of 50 points, indicating that companies are actively deploying for future business development. In terms of the comprehensive business industry index for this quarter, except for the "Construction" industry index which slightly declined, the remaining 10 industries all recorded increases. Among them, the "Real Estate," "Financial and Insurance," "Transportation, Warehousing and Courier Services," and "Retail" industries achieved significant increases. In terms of cost item changes, the rate at which SMEs expect costs to rise is continuing to slow down. 46% of SMEs expect raw material costs to rise this quarter, down by one percentage point from the previous quarter. Regarding overall investment trends, 95% of the SMEs surveyed stated that they will maintain or increase their investment in this quarter, up by three percentage points from the previous quarter, with 6% of SMEs indicating an increase in investment amount. Chan noted that the "Import and Export Trade and Wholesale" as well as the "Transportation, Warehousing and Courier Services" industries ranked lower in the industry index, reminding that despite ongoing trade negotiations between China and the United States during the survey period, tensions have resurfaced in October over issues such as rare earths and vessels, indicating that trade uncertainty still exists and will continue to be a major factor affecting SME confidence. Chan also mentioned at the press conference that both China and the UK are currently taking a cautious approach and maintaining communication, which is expected to have a positive impact on SMEs. He also predicted that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice within the year. He further pointed out that under the current unstable tariffs, expanding business internationally can reduce risks for companies, allowing them to diversify their operations, and that international activities will continue. Janet Fung, Chief Marketing Officer of the Hong Kong Productivity Council, stated that in expanding overseas markets, the Council has received government funding to assist SMEs in expanding their overseas markets, providing support to reduce financial pressure.