Gold's global foreign exchange reserves ratio has risen to 30%, and if it were to match the US dollar, the price of gold would need to rise to $5790.

The position of gold in the global reserve assets landscape is undergoing significant changes. According to information from the Wind Trading Platform, the latest research from Deutsche Bank shows that the proportion of gold in global "forex + gold" reserves has climbed to 30%, and in order for it to equal the share of the US dollar, the price of gold would need to rise to $5790 per ounce with the existing holdings unchanged. This calculation provides a new theoretical perspective for the market to understand the long-term value of gold. The core driver behind the increase in gold reserve status is the strong desire of central banks worldwide to increase their holdings. A survey by the World Gold Council earlier showed that the vast majority of reserve managers expect global central banks' gold holdings to continue to increase, a trend that is not only an important driver for the strong performance of gold prices in recent years but also indicates that future gold demand will remain strong. If the share equals that of the US dollar, the price of gold must rise to $5790 According to a report released by Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh on October 17th, the share of gold in global central bank "forex + gold" reserves has rapidly increased from 24% at the end of June this year to the current 30%. During the same period, the share of the US dollar decreased from 43% to 40%. This dynamic reflects the increasing attractiveness of gold as a reserve asset, while the dominance of the US dollar is relatively weakened. The report further proposes a price calculation: if gold were to equal the US dollar in the above-mentioned reserve category, its price would need to reach $5790 per ounce. In this scenario, assuming central bank gold holdings remain unchanged, gold and the US dollar would each account for 36% of global "forex + gold" reserves. Deutsche Bank's analysis specifically emphasizes that its research focuses on the share of gold in "forex + gold" reserves, rather than the share in total central bank assets. The report believes this is a more relevant analysis dimension, as "forex + gold" reserves are assets denominated in foreign currency that central banks can use to defend their national currencies. The preference of global central banks for gold has not weakened despite rising prices, but has instead become stronger. Deutsche Bank cited a survey conducted by the World Gold Council from February 25th to May 20th this year, which showed that the proportion of central banks planning to increase their gold reserves had risen from 29% last year to 43%. More importantly, market managers are highly consistent in their assessments of the overall trend. The survey found that up to 95% of surveyed reserve managers expect total gold holdings of global central banks to increase in the next 12 months, a proportion significantly higher than last year's 81%. This article is reprinted from "Wall Street View", edited by Ye Zhen; GMTEight edited by Song Zhiying.