Key data during the government shutdown: Investment banks estimate a decrease in the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits, but it does not hide the dilemma of the job market with "no hiring, no firing".

Economists at J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs estimated on Thursday that the number of new jobless claims in the United States decreased last week, but a weak hiring trend still left a significant number of people on unemployment relief lists. They calculated that, in the week ending October 11, the seasonally adjusted number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in various states in the United States dropped from 235,000 people the previous week to 217,000 people. The U.S. government shutdown has now entered its third week, as Republicans and Democrats in Washington remain deadlocked. This situation has led to a complete halt in the collection, processing, and release of official economic data. However, states are still collecting data on jobless claims and submitting it to the Department of Labor's database, which is still accessible. Economists are currently using seasonal adjustment factors released by the government earlier this year to estimate the number of claims, combining them with unadjusted data. It should be noted that data from Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Tennessee has not been obtained. Goldman Sachs stated in a report, "Arizona, Massachusetts, and Tennessee are not included in today's Department of Labor data. Our estimates assume that initial claims for unemployment benefits in these states are in line with the latest reported data. Using the minimum and maximum number of claims in these states so far this year, our estimates range from 211,000 to 225,000 people." The Department of Labor also uses similar estimation methods when handling data that is not submitted on time by states. Abiel Reinhart, an economist at J.P. Morgan, said, "The latest jobless claims data is quite good, indicating that layoffs remain low and the unemployment rate is stable." For Federal Reserve officials preparing for a policy meeting scheduled for October 28-29, jobless claims data has become a key indicator for evaluating the health of the labor market. Layoffs and hiring remain weak Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated this week, "Available evidence shows that current layoffs and hiring activities remain low, with households' perceptions of job opportunities and businesses' views on hiring difficulties continuing to decline." Although the government shutdown has led to thousands of federal contractors being unemployed, the number of jobless claims remains within the range before the shutdown, with no significant increase. Hundreds of thousands of temporarily laid-off federal government employees need to apply for unemployment benefits through a separate program, and data for this program is not immediately available. Economists point out that the U.S. labor market is currently in a state of "no hiring, no firing." The Federal Reserve's "beige Book" report released on Wednesday stated that overall labor demand has been "soft" in recent weeks. A survey released by the Bank of America Institute on Thursday found signs of a slowdown in the labor market for small businesses. Their alternative recruiting indicator based on Bank of America's small business payment data showed a decline in September. The report also noted that the number of applications, including planned salaries (seen as a signal of actual job creation), had fallen below pre-pandemic levels. Small businesses have been a major driver of employment growth in the United States. Economists say that President Donald Trump's trade and immigration policies, as well as the increasing use of artificial intelligence, have led to a decrease in both labor demand and supply. J.P. Morgan estimated that, in the week ending October 4, the number of people continuing to receive relief after their initial jobless claims (which can be used as a proxy indicator of hiring) remained unchanged at 1.927 million after seasonal adjustment. Goldman Sachs estimated this number to be 1.917 million. In August of this year, the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, near a four-year high, and the continued high number of people receiving unemployment benefits shows that there are no signs of improvement in the job market.