Guotai Haitong: Passenger car retail prices rebounded in September, industry price competition relatively moderate.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that, against the background of the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden September and Silver October," the pricing policy of the passenger car industry remains stable, with the average retail price at the terminal continuing to rise. The bank believes that the rebound in passenger car prices indicates an improvement in the supply and demand situation; dealers, as important channel providers, face the same supply and demand fundamentals as the overall passenger car industry. The bank expects that as the anti-"involution" trend continues, dealers' gross profit margins in new car business are expected to rebound, with greater certainty in profit improvement for top dealers. In addition, the anti-"involution" trend prompts OEMs to return to value competition, which is conducive to improving the industry's long-term overall profit margin and improving the profitability environment of the entire industry chain. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: Discounts on domestic passenger cars decreased in September, with a slight increase in discounted car models compared to the previous month. According to the monthly report on passenger car retail price monitoring in September released by the Automotive Home Research Institute public account, the average discount on domestic passenger cars in September 2025 relative to the beginning of 2023 was 20.1%. In September 2025, the number of discounted car models in China increased by 2 compared to the previous month. The bank believes that against the backdrop of the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden September and Silver October," the overall pricing policy of domestic passenger cars is relatively mild, market order has significantly improved, and there is a certain relationship with the trend of anti-"involution". The bank maintains a "hold" rating on the industry. Average retail prices of passenger cars continued to rise in September. According to the monthly report on passenger car retail price monitoring in September released by the Automotive Home Research Institute public account, the average retail price of domestic passenger cars in September 2025 was 176,000 yuan, up by 6.8% year-on-year and 3.6% month-on-month, continuing to rise since the retail price bottomed out in Q4 2024. Looking at different types of powertrains, The average retail price of gasoline cars in September was 178,000 yuan, up by 4.2% year-on-year and 4.4% month-on-month; the average retail price of pure electric cars was 161,000 yuan, up by 10.0% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month; the average retail price of plug-in hybrids & extended-range cars was 199,000 yuan, up by 16.9% year-on-year and 6.2% month-on-month. The bank believes that the rise in retail prices is related to the introduction of high-end new energy car models and the improvement in the competitive environment for passenger cars due to anti-"involution". Risk warning: New car sales fall below expectations, and raw material prices rise sharply.