CITIC SEC: It is expected that the size of bank wealth management in October will exceed one trillion yuan, and the annual peak is expected to reach over 3.35 trillion yuan.

CITIC SEC released a research report stating that, according to their calculations, the scale of bank wealth management is expected to decrease by 850 billion yuan to 32.11 trillion yuan by the end of September 2025 compared to the previous month. After entering October, with the pressure of end-of-quarter assessments dissipating and the liquidity demand falling after the double holiday period, the scale of wealth management is expected to recover within the month. In the long term, in the era of low interest rates, "fixed income+" wealth management products remain an important driver of wealth management scale growth. It is expected that the scale for the month of October may increase by over 1 trillion yuan, and the peak annual wealth management scale is expected to reach over 3.35 trillion yuan. CITIC SEC calculated that the scale of bank wealth management in September 2025 compared to the previous year decreased by 850 billion yuan to 32.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 8.5% compared to September 2024. In September, factors such as end-of-quarter reporting, increased demand for cash during holidays, etc., usually lead to some funds temporarily flowing out of the wealth management market, resulting in a temporary retreat. CITIC SEC calculated that the scale of retreat was higher than the average retreat from 2018 to 2024 by about 660 billion yuan, but lower than the average retreat in September 2023-24 of 1.1 trillion yuan. It is worth noting that the return of funds from wealth management is a normal seasonal fluctuation, not a movement into the equity market. From July to September, the stock market saw a bull market trend, the pressures of the stock-bond teeter-totter led to a pullback in the bond market. However, banks' wealth management benefited from the accumulated gains from previous closing price valuations and the smoothing trust mechanism, to some extent resisting the bond market volatility, without affecting the liability side of banks. The retreat of wealth management scale this time was mainly into bank on-balance sheet, and there was no large-scale movement from wealth management to the stock market by ordinary residents. The incremental funds in the stock market mainly came from private banking clients, so there is no need to worry too much about the bond market. The retreat in wealth management scale is only a seasonal disturbance, and it is expected to be fully restored at the beginning of October. Looking ahead to October, wealth management scale may experience excessive restoration, and the scale growth is expected to reach over 1 trillion yuan. In October, with the end-of-quarter assessments concluding and the end of the double holiday, market liquidity pressures will ease, and there is a high probability of funds returning to the wealth management market, leading to rapid restoration of wealth management scale. Looking back at historical data, based on Wind data, the average month-on-month increment of wealth management scale from October 2018 to 2024 was 800 billion yuan, with an average month-on-month growth rate of 3.19%. In addition, considering that the fixed-term deposits placed during the excess savings period are entering a large expiry stage, coupled with the continued decline in deposit rates, it is expected that residents' demand for wealth management products will further increase, driving the wealth management scale to achieve a higher rate of recovery in October, with the incremental wealth management scale expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan. In the era of low interest rates, "fixed income+" wealth management products are still the trend of wealth management products. The scale growth for the whole year of 2025 may exceed 1.4 trillion yuan, becoming an important driver of wealth management scale growth, with the overall wealth management scale expected to reach over 3.35 trillion yuan. Since 2021, the bond market has entered a period of low interest rates, with bond yields currently at historical lows. Although multiple indicators indicate that the economy was stable and improving in the first half of the year, the strong recovery still faces multiple uncertainties, as the trend of deglobalization strengthens, with Trump recently announcing additional tariffs, it is expected that monetary policy will continue to maintain a moderately loose stance, and the central interest rates in the bond market are expected to continue to decline, coupled with the continuous rate cuts on deposits, the long-term returns on fixed income products may also show a downward trend. In the era of low interest rates, the potential returns on purely fixed income products continue to decrease, while the advantages of "fixed income+" products in obtaining excess returns are obvious. CITIC SEC believes that "fixed income+" products will continue to grow in the future, becoming an important driver of wealth management scale growth, with the scale growth of "fixed income+" products for the whole year expected to exceed 1.4 trillion yuan. It is expected that the overall wealth management scale for the whole year will exceed 3.35 trillion yuan.