Key points of the Securities Morning Meeting | The "anti-inward spiral" of the photovoltaic industry has become the core contradiction in the current industry. Optimistic about the direction of new technological iteration.

Yesterday, the market rose and then fell back, with the three major indexes briefly turning green collectively. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.93 trillion yuan, a decrease of 141.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day, falling below 2 trillion yuan since September 10. In terms of sectors, coal, insurance, and port shipping sectors led the gains, while precious metals, semiconductors, and wind power sectors led the declines. As of the close of trading yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25%, and the Growth Enterprise Market rose by 0.38%. At today's morning meeting of securities firms, China Securities Co., Ltd. pointed out that "anti-inward cycle" in the photovoltaic industry has become the core contradiction, and they are optimistic about the direction of new technology iteration; Huatai believes that the current real estate cycle has entered a "deep water zone"; CICC stated that border consumption may benefit slightly from "Chinese shopping", but some bottlenecks still need to be addressed. China Securities Co., Ltd.: "Anti-inward cycle" in the photovoltaic industry has become the core contradiction, optimistic about the direction of new technology iteration China Securities Co., Ltd. pointed out that the photovoltaic industry chain is currently in a state of imbalance between supply and demand, and the core contradiction in the industry is still the "anti-inward cycle" driving the clearance of production capacity. The "anti-inward cycle" in the photovoltaic industry mainly includes rectifying below-cost sales, capacity integration, and elimination of outdated capacity. Rectifying below-cost sales has achieved significant results, with prices of silicon materials, wafers, and cells gradually rising, while component prices have a limited short-term increase, and the subsequent price trend needs to be closely monitored. In terms of capacity clearance, the new energy consumption standard for polysilicon has tightened significantly, and it is expected that capacity clearance may be an important means in the future. In the short term, the focus should be on capacity integration and industry cooperation to control production capacity. China Securities Co., Ltd. believes that a reversal of supply and demand in the industry still needs to see stronger-than-expected capacity policy efforts, and they are optimistic about leading material companies in the sector, as well as new technology directions (BC, TOPCon3.0, paste materials). Huatai: The current real estate cycle has entered a "deep water zone" Huatai pointed out that from a macro perspective, the current real estate cycle has entered a "deep water zone", and they are more optimistic about the recovery pace of core cities represented by first-tier cities. Since mid-2021, the CHINAPROPERTIES market has quickly completed a certain volume of adjustments and has undergone a relatively fast process of supply-side clearance. Since mid-2025, the year-on-year growth rate of China's commercial housing sales volume has gradually narrowed, and the monthly annualized sales area has remained low. From a volumetric perspective, the real estate cycle has entered a period of bottoming out: 1) Since 2021, this round of real estate sales has undergone a certain degree of adjustment, crossing the upper boundary of the down cycle of major overseas economies, and the sales area growth rate of cities of different levels and the land market have shown bottoming-out characteristics since the second quarter. The transaction volume in the "bottom zone" of this round of real estate adjustment may have reached the level since the middle of the year; 2) House prices are still in the process of bottoming out, but since September, the rate of decline in house prices has narrowed. With the continuous progress of destocking, the comprehensive recovery of the real estate market is expected to gradually approach in the future. The comprehensive recovery of the market has not yet arrived, and they are relatively more optimistic about the recovery pace of core cities represented by first-tier cities. CICC: Border consumption may benefit slightly from "Chinese shopping", some bottlenecks still need to be addressed CICC believes that with the continuous optimization of inbound policies in recent years, "Chinese tourism" is gradually rising; and with the growth of passenger flows and adjustments to the outbound tax refund policy, "Chinese shopping" also brings new growth opportunities to the domestic consumption market. Border consumption at airport ports may benefit slightly from "Chinese shopping", and larger international airport hubs are relatively more favorable. However, some bottlenecks still need to be addressed. It is expected that airport businesses can benefit from the growing trend of inbound consumption, but the impact on performance is currently limited. In terms of taxable businesses, airport businesses do not lack categories of goods that foreigners like, but shopping time, store layout, and tax refund qualifications may still pose certain restrictions; in terms of duty-free businesses, Chinese airport duty-free shops are dominated by fragrance categories. Airport shops have price advantages, but foreign visitors have not effectively stimulated duty-free shopping, which may be related to their consumption habits. This article is reprinted from "", GMTEight editor: Xu Wenqiang.