Guosen: Maintain JD-SW (09618) "Outperform" rating, takeaway new business UE continues to improve.

Guosen released a research report stating that it maintains a "better than market" rating for JD-SW (09618). The company's new takeaway business investment is restrained, and the efficiency of the basic e-commerce business is continuously improving. The bank adjusted the company's revenue forecast for 2025-2027 to 1.3348/1.4197/1.4882 trillion yuan, and adjusted the company's net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 29.8/40.8/56.7 billion yuan, with adjustments of +2.2%/+1.7%/+1.2%. The bank stated that the company's third-quarter revenue performance was impressive, with revenue expected to increase by +13% year-on-year. In terms of revenue, the bank predicts that in Q3, JD Group will achieve revenue of 293.9 billion yuan, an increase of +13% year-on-year, mainly driven by government subsidies that accelerated the growth of JD Retail sales revenue (24Q3/25Q2 revenue growth yoy +5%/22%). It is expected that JD Retail revenue growth will be +11%, with high single-digit growth in electrical categories and double-digit growth in daily necessities categories. The takeaway business volume is expected to increase compared to Q2, mainly due to seasonal factors. It is estimated that JD Retail/JD LOGISTICS/new business revenue growth in Q3 will be +11%/+20%/+230%. In terms of operations, the bank predicts that JD Q3 GMV growth rate will be around 15% (online retail market yoy growth +12.9% in July-August), with market share continuously recovering, mainly driven by the trade-in old-for-new program in electrical categories. Looking at the user side, quarterly active buying users and average purchase frequency of e-commerce users continue to show strong growth, mainly benefiting from government subsidies and the new takeaway business. Among the first batch of new takeaway users acquired from March to April this year, 40% have converted to main site users as of July. In terms of profit, it is expected that the company's 2025 Q3 Non-GAAP net profit margin will be 1.4%. Specifically, JD Retail operating profit margin is expected to increase by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year due to improved supply chain efficiency driving up gross profit from goods, and fast growth in commission and advertising revenue leading to structural adjustments. In terms of the new takeaway business started this year, the continuous improvement in takeaway UE is seen. This is mainly due to the fact that the company did not follow up on large-scale user subsidies from competitors in Q3, the proportion of regular meals is stable with a slight increase, and the improvement in takeaway delivery efficiency and more precise subsidies are driving UE improvements.