UBS: Expects AIA (01299) to accelerate growth in new business value in the third quarter. Rated "Buy".

UBS released a research report stating that it estimates AIA (01299) will have a 10% increase in embedded value (EV) in the second half of 2025 (a 2.6% increase in the first half). UBS adjusted its profit and embedded value based on the latest macroeconomic environment, maintaining AIA's target price at 88 Hong Kong dollars and rating it as a "Buy". AIA is set to announce its third quarter 2025 results on October 31. UBS estimates that the third quarter new business value (VNB) will increase by 18% and 17% year-on-year based on actual exchange rates (AER) and fixed exchange rates (CER) respectively, an acceleration from the 16% and 14% growth rate in the first half. UBS believes that its strong growth is mainly driven by the strong rebound in the Chinese market. UBS stated that despite the introduction of interest rate caps by AIA on July 1, the growth of new business value in Hong Kong in the third quarter remained strong, believing that the momentum of mainland visitors to Hong Kong (MCV) in the agency channel continued to be strong in the third quarter. In China, UBS predicts that AIA's new business value in the third quarter will rebound by 20% year-on-year (a 4% decline in the first half). In Thailand, UBS expects AIA's new business value to increase by high single digits year-on-year. In Singapore, due to product portfolio adjustments in April, UBS predicts a slower year-on-year growth rate of new business value in the third quarter compared to the first half. In Malaysia, as headwinds in the agency channel gradually dissipate, UBS estimates that new business value will see a moderate recovery. In other markets, UBS forecasts double-digit growth in AIA's new business value supported by India and Vietnam.