EB Securities: Maintains "Buy" rating on China Jinmao (00817), with continued impressive sales performance.

EB SECURITIES released a research report stating that CHINA JINMAO (00817) has a strong brand influence, with recent sales growth impressive and operational efficiency optimization improving. The period rate has significantly decreased, and the company's net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised to 12.5, 14.3, and 15.8 billion yuan (originally forecasted at 12.2/13.4/14.6 billion yuan). The current stock price corresponds to a 2025-2027 PE (basic) valuation of 13.7/12.0/10.8 times. The recommendation is to maintain a "Buy" rating. The main points from EB SECURITIES are as follows: Event: Company released unaudited sales data for September 2025 1. In September 2025, the company achieved a signed sales amount of 98.0 billion yuan and a signed sales area of 493,000 square meters. From January to September 2025, the company achieved a signed sales amount of 806.9 billion yuan and a signed sales area of 3.675 million square meters (excluding rental income). 2. As of September 30, 2025, the company had subscribed (not signed) sales amount totaling 6.4 billion yuan. Comments: Brand value leads development, sales performance continues to be impressive, and the period rate has significantly decreased. Brand value leads development CHINA JINMAO has been selected for "China's 500 Most Valuable Brands" for 21 consecutive years, demonstrating stable brand appeal. In 2025, Jinmao's brand value of 74.2 billion yuan once again made the list, ranked 170th, with a brand value increased of nearly 8 billion yuan from the previous year, and climbing one place in the rankings. The company has always led with a focus on quality to drive the construction of "good houses," and through the wonderful presentation of the "Jin Yu Man Tang" series of products, in the current context of overall sales decline in the real estate industry, it has driven sales with quality upgrades, breaking out of the independent trend. Impressive sales performance Brand value empowerment, combined with improved operational efficiency, has led to the company's recent impressive sales performance. In terms of the margin, in July/August/September 2025, the company's monthly signed sales amounts were 84.6/90.8/98.0 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of +49.5%/+46.5%/+39.9%; in the third quarter of 2025, the company's signed sales amount was 273.4 billion yuan (compared to 188.6 billion yuan in the same period of 2024), with a signed sales area of 1.281 million square meters (compared to 1.008 million square meters in the same period of 2024), and a signed sales average price of 21,346 yuan per square meter (compared to 18,720 yuan per square meter in the same period of 2024), showing a trend of simultaneous increase in volume and price. Cumulatively, from January to September 2025, the company's sales amount was 806.9 billion yuan (a cumulative year-on-year increase of +27.3%), sales area was 3.675 million square meters (a cumulative year-on-year increase of +6.0%), and sales average price was 21,958 yuan per square meter (a cumulative year-on-year increase of +20.1%). Significant decrease in period rate The company's 2025 mid-year performance report shows that the management expenses for January-June 2025 were 12.2 billion yuan (compared to 12.9 billion yuan in the same period of 2024), with a management expense ratio of 4.8% (compared to 5.8% in the same period of 2024); the sales expenses for January-June 2025 were 8.3 billion yuan (compared to 9.8 billion yuan in the same period of 2024), with a sales expense ratio of 3.3% (compared to 4.5% in the same period of 2024). In a situation where sales performance is improving against the trend, the period expense ratio has decreased significantly, reflecting not only the company's optimization of organizational structure and improvement in operational efficiency but also a clearer demonstration of the value empowerment of the "Jinmao brand." Risks: Risks include sales and land acquisition falling below expectations, asset disposal falling below expectations, and the market downturn exceeding expectations.