CMSC: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is rapidly rising, with the potential to break through the off-season.

CMSC released a research report stating that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is accelerating, with the highest post-holiday price reaching 73,000 yuan/ton, an increase of over 8,500 yuan/ton compared to pre-holiday prices. The recent acceleration in price may be due to industry inventory hitting bottom and a lack of effective supply increase. Some leading companies may see a decline in shipments in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to their inventories being depleted. According to industry feedback, some 6F factories have already seen shortened payment periods and downstream customers requesting goods on site. The demand for energy storage and commercial vehicles in the lithium battery downstream continues to exceed expectations, providing some support for increased demand for lithium batteries next year. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to continue to rise, with the uptrend expected to continue through the first quarter of 2026. CMSC's main points are as follows: Accelerating increase in 6F prices After the holiday, prices for 6F have accelerated to 66,000-73,000 yuan/ton, an increase of over 8,500 yuan/ton compared to pre-holiday prices. Considering that public prices may lag slightly, actual transaction prices may be higher. According to industry feedback, due to shortages, some leading 6F companies have sent letters to customers, shortening payment periods to under a month (previously over three months on average), with some downstream customers requesting goods on site. The recent acceleration in price is likely mainly due to industry inventory shortages. Inventory depletion may mean that the current uptrend in 6F prices could transcend the off-season cycle In the first three quarters, some leading 6F companies' monthly shipments exceeded production, leading to continuous inventory decline, with feedback from the industry indicating that many representative 6F companies have now depleted their stockpiles. Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, even if there is a 20% quarter-on-quarter decline in demand, 6F companies will only need to replenish inventory appropriately to maintain full production, hence the current uptrend is expected to transcend the off-season cycle. In the electrolyte sector, operations are expected to continue to rise next year On the demand side, there is great potential for energy storage and commercial vehicle electrification, and lithium battery demand is expected to maintain growth above medium speed in 2026. Leading battery cell companies' energy storage production lines are operating at full capacity, with some energy storage cell prices beginning to rise. In the first half of this year, global energy storage cell shipments reached 240GWh, a 106% increase year-on-year. In addition, China's commercial vehicle electrification has significantly exceeded expectations, with domestic sales of new energy commercial vehicles reaching 481,000 units from January to August, a 59% increase year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 23%. Furthermore, the amount of electricity carried by commercial vehicles has greatly increased, with installations reaching 77.3GWh in the same period, a 115.2% increase year-on-year, and commercial vehicle electrification is expected to further accelerate in 2026. On the supply side, first and second-tier 6F companies are operating at full capacity, with no significant expansion in production currently. Even if expansion were to be started now, it would take over a year to reach full production capacity. Based on the semi-annual financial reports, aside from Tianci, other 6F manufacturers have been operating at a loss for several consecutive years. Some small factories have started to raise prices eagerly in response to the industry's supply and demand dynamics overturning, in an effort to improve cash flow, further driving up public prices. The operation of the 6F sector is expected to continue to improve and move in a positive direction next year. In addition to 6F, the solvents in the electrolyte industry chain have been operating at full capacity for a long period, with relatively good concentration and still in a loss state, and future prices are expected to continue to rise, which is worth paying attention to. Risk warning Downstream demand falls short of expectations, and new capacity is rapidly put into operation.