A reenactment of the "crash warning" from 25 years ago? This week, concerns about a bubble hang over the IMF and World Bank autumn annual meeting.

In the coming week, in addition to trade disputes and escalating public debt, global central bank officials will also face a new concern together: the danger of a market crash. Monetary policy makers and finance ministers from around the world will gather in Washington this week to attend the International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank (WB) annual meetings. Prior to this, various parties have issued warnings that the stock market bubble centered around artificial intelligence companies may soon burst. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva acknowledged the risks to financial stability in a speech last Wednesday, which also served as a preview of the discussions in the days to come. She said, "Current valuations are nearing levels reached during the internet bubble period 25 years ago. If there is a significant pullback, the tense financial situation could curb global economic growth, expose various vulnerabilities, and make the situation even more difficult for developing countries." Her warning could be considered more direct than the comments made by the IMF at the October 2000 meetings. The organization's World Economic Outlook report at the time stated that "stock valuations are still at high levels" and pointed out that "potential imbalances could be resolved in a disorderly manner." A few months later, selling pressure intensified to the point where the Federal Reserve was forced to emergency cut rates by 50 basis points. Even before President Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on China, causing the stock market to plummet on Friday, officials had already identified similar worrisome situations. The Bank of England had just warned of the risk of a "substantial market adjustment," decision makers at the European Central Bank also expressed concerns publicly, and the Reserve Bank of Australia had also pointed out existing vulnerabilities this month. Such concerns have been ongoing for some time. Just over a month ago, European Central Bank officials issued a warning at the last policy meeting of a "sudden sharp drop in prices," while Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also pointed out in September that the market was "overvalued." Therefore, this week, the Global Financial Stability Report by the IMF, which will be released on Tuesday, may receive more attention than usual. The latest World Economic Outlook report (which includes global economic forecasts) will also be released on the same day. Statements from the ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) or Group of Twenty (G20) member countries attending the IMF meetings will be closely analyzed, and the viewpoints expressed by the numerous policymakers at the meeting will also be scrutinized. Bloomberg economist Tom Orlik remarked, "Artificial intelligence may be a bubble. But it is also a powerful force. The IMF warning that valuations are too high is undoubtedly correct. However, the more questionable aspect is whether these warnings will be accepted by investors who fear missing out on opportunities." Additionally, trade and inflation data from China and India, wage and economic growth data from the UK, and the list of Nobel Prize winners in Economics to be announced in Stockholm on Monday will be highlights of the news this week. Meanwhile, trade tensions between the US and China will attract the attention of investors and policymakers. United States In the US, due to the government shutdown delaying the release of official economic data, investors will be focused on Powell's assessment of the labor market and inflation. He will speak at the National Association for Business Economics on Tuesday, providing an outlook on the economic situation and monetary policy. This week's economic data releases in the US include the Small Business Optimism Index for September, as well as manufacturing surveys conducted by the New York and Philadelphia Feds in October. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book - an informal report on economic conditions across the country. Asia-Pacific region This week, the main focus of the Asian markets will be on trade, inflation, and policy signals, helping people better understand how the region is coping with increasing global uncertainty and widening policy differences. China will lead the way in releasing relevant data on Monday. The data is expected to show a growth in Chinese exports in September. On the same day, India is expected to announce a further decline in consumer price inflation. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's September meeting, to be released on Tuesday, will provide insight into how officials are weighing further rate cuts against a strong labor market. Additionally, the National Australia Bank will also release its business survey report on the same day. On Wednesday, China will release inflation data for September. Trade data announced by India on the same day will reflect the impact of high US tariffs, while import trends will reflect domestic consumption and investment sentiment. The country will also announce unemployment rate data on that day. Bank of Japan committee member and hawkish figure Naotoshi Tamura (who called for rate hikes last month) will speak on Thursday, followed by Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya speaking on Friday. With uncertainty surrounding Japan's rate hikes after the victory of Yoshihide Suga in the ruling party leadership race, investors will closely monitor any changes in their tone in the speeches. Europe The appearances of European Central Bank President Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Bailey in Washington will be highlights in Europe. In the eurozone, the turbulence over France's public finances will also be a focus this week. Sebastian Le Cornu was reappointed as Prime Minister on Friday and he needs to form a government before submitting a budget plan. Among the upcoming statistical data releases, Germany's ZEW investor confidence index will be announced on Tuesday, while industrial production data for the Eurozone will be released on Wednesday, garnering the most attention. In the UK, wage data to be released on Tuesday is expected to show a decrease in wage data excluding bonuses. This result may lead Bank of England officials to feel more reassured about the level of inflation. Economic growth data to be released two days later is expected to show slight growth in GDP for August, following no change the previous month.