Overnight US stocks | S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs, AMD (AMD.US) surges over 11%

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new closing highs. The minutes of the Fed meeting cautiously suggested further interest rate cuts this year. There is a growing disagreement among Fed officials about the future direction of interest rates, but most believe that further rate cuts are necessary this year. The minutes from the Fed's September meeting released on Wednesday showed that the committee is struggling to deal with conflicting economic signals and finding it difficult to reach a consensus on whether stubborn inflation or a weak labor market is the most urgent issue. The minutes showed that Fed officials unanimously agreed that given the recent weak job data, it was necessary to cut interest rates once, but there was a disagreement among officials about the future path. However, the minutes showed that "most believe that further easing policy may be appropriate in the remaining months of this year." However, some policy makers "pointed out that, from several indicators, financial conditions do not show particularly restrictive monetary policy, and they believe it is necessary to adopt a cautious approach." According to forecasts for September, 10 Fed officials indicated that they expect to cut rates twice more this year, while 9 officials believe there should be one or fewer rate cuts. US StocksAt the close, the Dow Jones closed flat at 46,601.78 points; the Nasdaq rose 255.02 points, or 1.12%, to 23,043.38 points; the S&P 500 rose 39.13 points, or 0.58%, to 6,753.72 points. AMD (AMD.US) rose 11.3%, hitting a new all-time high with a total market value of over 380 billion US dollars. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) rose 2.2%, Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) rose 5.8%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose 0.87%, Netease Inc Sponsored ADR (NTES.US) rose nearly 3%, NIO Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A Automobile (NIO.US) rose 4.5%. European StocksGermany's DAX30 index rose 224.24 points, or 0.92%, to 24,613.14 points; the UK's FTSE 100 index rose 66.11 points, or 0.70%, to 9,549.69 points; France's CAC40 index rose 85.28 points, or 1.07%, to 8,060.13 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 37.13 points, or 0.66%, to 5,650.75 points; Spain's IBEX35 index rose 142.56 points, or 0.92%, to 15,673.06 points; Italy's FTSE MIB index rose 404.05 points, or 0.94%, 43,475.00 points. Crude OilLight crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 82 cents to settle at $62.55 per barrel, up 1.33%; London Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose 80 cents to settle at $66.25 per barrel, up 1.22%. CryptocurrencyBitcoin rose over 1.5% to $123,332.70, while Ethereum rose over 1.7% to $4,527.14. US Dollar IndexThe US Dollar Index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.34% to close at 98.915 in the forex market's late trading. At the end of New York forex market trading, 1 euro exchanged for $1.1620, lower than the previous trading day's $1.1658; 1 British pound exchanged for $1.3390, lower than the previous trading day's $1.3430. 1 US dollar exchanged for 152.70 Japanese yen, higher than the previous trading day's 151.83 Japanese yen; 1 US dollar exchanged for 0.8020 Swiss francs, higher than the previous trading day's 0.7981 Swiss francs; 1 US dollar exchanged for 1.3957 Canadian dollars, higher than the previous trading day's 1.3951 Canadian dollars; 1 US dollar exchanged for 9.4431 Swedish krona, higher than the previous trading day's 9.4071 Swedish krona. Analyst Jane Foley of Rabobank said in a report that despite the threat to the independence of the Fed, which has dimmed the US dollar's shine, the dollar remains a major safe-haven asset like gold. She said that the recent increase in the price of gold has raised questions about the dollar's role as a safe-haven asset. Although the dollar faces risks until 2026, the "depth of the US capital markets means that investors won't be able to abandon the dollar if political risks intensify, such as those of GEO Group Inc." The "hard power" of the dollar is also a factor in its safe-haven attraction, as the security guarantee of the US reinforces the dollar's dominant position. Precious MetalsSpot gold continued its trend of hitting new historical highs this week, closing at $4,041.91; spot palladium rose 10% in a day to a high of $1,476.28 per ounce, reaching a new high since May 2023. Macro News Will there be more rate cuts? Disagreement within the Fed. The minutes of the Fed meeting showed that Fed officials had differing opinions on where rates should be cut after approving the first rate cut this year last month. Officials generally agreed that signs of a slowdown in job growth outweighed concerns about stubborn inflation, leading to a rate cut of 25 basis points last month. According to the minutes, most officials believe that "further easing policy may be appropriate in the remaining months of this year." However, the minutes also indicated that some officials believed there was no need to cut rates last month, or they could also support keeping rates unchanged. Among the 19 officials at the meeting, slightly more than half expected at least two more rate cuts this year, indicating that the Fed could make consecutive rate cuts at its meetings this month and in December. However, 7 officials did not expect further rate cuts this year, highlighting the difficult situation Fed Chairman Powell faces in building consensus. Usually, Fed minutes appear to be "lagging" due to the three-week gap between release dates, but the government shutdown left Fed officials with insufficient new information to significantly adjust their views. Investors generally expect the Fed to cut rates by another 25 basis points at the next meeting in October. Both Republican and Democratic funding bills fail to pass, leaving the US government in a shutdown deadlock. On Wednesday, the US Senate again rejected funding bills proposed by both Republicans and Democrats, failing to end the eight-day government shutdown with no signs of a resolution. In a vote of 54-45, the Senate failed to advance a temporary funding bill led by Republicans, which was supposed to provide funding to the government until late November. A Democratic alternative funding bill was also rejected by a vote of 47-52. Three Democratic senators who had previously supported Republicans in earlier votes once again sided with Republicans in Wednesday's vote. Kentucky Republican Senator Rand Paul once again stood with the Democrats, opposing the Republican proposal. These two competing temporary funding measures have failed to pass in five previous votes. IMF Chief: There may be room for further rate cuts by the Fed. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that the Fed may cut rates further this year, but must carefully balance the slowing economic growth outlook and signs of stagnating inflation. Georgieva pointed out that the US economy has shown resilience, with 3.8% growth in the second quarter, exceeding most expectations. Although recruitment is not as strong as before, consumer demand remains strong. "The overall situation is not very clear. In this environment, considering the stagnation of the anti-inflation process and the possibility of a slight economic slowdown, the Fed must grasp the balance." Georgieva said the IMF is closely monitoring the latest data, adding that if service sector inflation is combined with a wider range of tariff costs, the inflation outlook for the US will be "more worrying." Argentina's interest rates soar to over 80% as the market bets the government will allow the peso to depreciate. As the Argentine government continues to deplete reserves to support the struggling Argentine peso, investors in the country are increasing their bets that President Milei will allow the peso to depreciate after the mid-term elections this month. Sources revealed that the Argentine Ministry of Finance has intervened in the market for a seventh consecutive trading day by selling at least $320 million. In the previous six trading days, the Ministry of Finance is estimated to have sold approximately $1.5 billion to support the peso. Short-term interest rates have also surged to record highs, highlighting liquidity tightening. Yields on local government bonds, known as Lecap bonds, due on October 31 jumped from 76% the previous day to nearly 97%; yields on bonds due on November 28 rose from 74% to almost 87%. Individual Stock News Cathie Wood, BlackRock, Inc.'s Rob Goldstein, and Heath Tarbert of Circle (CRCL.US) and Coincase (COIN.US) executives will attend the Fed's "Payment Innovation" conference. The Fed's "Payment Innovation" conference to be held later this month will be attended by Cathie Wood of Ark Investment Management, Rob Goldstein of BlackRock, Inc., and Heath Tarbert of Circle Internet Group Inc., among others. Speakers at the event will also include Coinbase CFO Alesia Haas, Fifth Third CEO Tim Spence, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller. The Fed said in a statement: "The Fed welcomes the opportunity to consider how payment systems can be further innovated and improved from a broad perspective." The Fed had previously indicated that the October 21 meeting would focus on the integration of traditional finance and decentralized finance, emerging stablecoin use cases and business models, and the tokenization of financial products and services.