Overnight US stocks | Three major indices rise, spot gold breaks through $3830.

On Monday, the three major indexes rose. Spot gold continued to hit new all-time highs. According to Kalshi and Polymarket platforms, the probability of the U.S. federal government shutting down on Wednesday has risen to about 70%, after the U.S. Department of Labor announced that it would not release the highly anticipated non-farm employment report on Friday if the government shuts down. Last weekend, the probability of a shutdown was around 50%. US StocksAt the close, the Dow rose 68.78 points, or 0.15%, to 46316.07 points; the Nasdaq rose 107.09 points, or 0.48%, to 22591.15 points; the S&P 500 rose 17.51 points, or 0.26%, to 6661.21 points. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) rose 2.05%, Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) fell 0.4%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) rose 1.09%. Crypto concept stocks Circle (CRCL.US) rose 5.25%, and MicroStrategy (MSTR.US) rose 5.62%. European StocksThe DAX 30 index in Germany rose 17.67 points, or 0.07%, to 23750.76 points; the FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 13.02 points, or 0.14%, to 9297.85 points; the CAC 40 index in France rose 10.19 points, or 0.13%, to 7880.87 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 7.75 points, or 0.14%, to 5507.45 points; the IBEX 35 index in Spain fell 35.52 points, or 0.23%, to 15312.28 points; and the FTSE MIB index in Italy fell 109.23 points, or 0.26%, to 42537.00 points. Crude OilWTI fell 3.4%, settling at around $63 per barrel, marking the largest single-day decline since June; Brent crude closed below $70 per barrel. Sources said that the Saudi-led OPEC+ alliance is considering increasing production, by at least the same amount as the planned increase of 137,000 barrels per day next month. CryptocurrencyBitcoin rose nearly 1.8%, to $114,222.33; Ethereum rose nearly 2%, to $4,227.11. Precious MetalsSpot gold hit a new all-time high, closing up 1.95% at $3,834.02. Institutional investors believe that with support from factors like a Fed rate cut, the price of gold still has upside potential in the medium to long term. The wealth management investment office of UBS Group AG predicts that by mid-2026, the price of gold could reach $3,900 per ounce. In terms of the domestic situation, the CIO stated that although demand for gold investment in China has been weak in recent weeks due to the rise in the domestic stock market, with the continuous increase in the gold price, it is expected that the holdings of the China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery ETF may recover. In addition, the latest policy address in Hong Kong, where plans to expand gold reserves in Hong Kong and establish a gold central clearing system were announced, are also expected to support gold prices. Macro News Williams: Signs of a weak labor market make me support rate cuts. The estimate for the actual neutral interest rate is 0.75%. Federal Reserve's Williams said on Monday that the initial signs of weakness in the labor market prompted him to support rate cuts at the recent Fed meeting. Williams said it was "prudent to cut rates slightly," and that "moderating some tightening measures would help boost the job market and put some downward pressure on inflation, which is still high. He also said that his model estimates the actual neutral interest rate at 0.75%, but he added that the neutral rate is important, but policy is data-driven. Trump seeks to revive the coal industry by opening up large tracts of land for mining. The Trump administration is opening up 13.1 million acres of federal land for lease to coal miners and providing $625 million to coal-fired power plants to boost the struggling industry. These measures are announced concurrently with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) statement. Currently, with the soaring demand for electricity brought about by data centers, new factories, and broader economic electrification, the U.S. president and government officials have made boosting coal-fired power a top priority. Apart from the fact that it will expand the scale of coal leasing in the U.S. to more than three times the amount required by Trump's "Beautiful Great Bill", the agency, also announced that it will lower the royalty fee for coal and streamline approval procedures for projects in Wyoming, Tennessee, and other locations. The U.S. Energy Corp. announced that it will provide $625 million for the renovation or modernization of coal-fired power plants and funding for new coal projects. It is currently unclear whether these new measures will substantially alter the trajectory of coal development. Faced with competition from low-cost natural gas and renewable energy, as well as stricter environmental regulations, coal has been on a downward trend for many years. Data shows that coal currently accounts for about 15% of U.S. electricity generation, down more than half from 2000. Rate cuts inject momentum: U.S. August pending home sales climb higher than expected. Data shows that U.S. pending home sales in August rose to the highest level in five months, injecting much-needed momentum into the sluggish real estate market due to lower mortgage rates. Prior to this, new home sales in August also unexpectedly increased, and the further-than-expected rise in pending home sales indicates that the U.S. real estate market may be in the early stages of emerging from several years of stagnation. Mortgage rates have now dropped to 6.34%, the lowest level in a year, prompting many Americans to no longer wait and encouraging some homeowners to finally list their homes for sale. Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, said in a statement, "Lower mortgage rates allow more homebuyers to sign purchase contracts. This trend is particularly evident in the Midwest, where pending home sales surged nearly 9% in August, the largest increase since early 2023. Signed contracts in the South and West also rose." Although the lowered mortgage rates are welcomed, millions of Americans currently hold mortgages with rates much lower than the current levels, making them unwilling to move. This phenomenon has led to continued tight housing inventory, with home prices remaining high. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Economic data will not be released during government shutdown. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has just released a contingency plan for government shutdowns, suspending all operations and not releasing economic data during a shutdown. Currently, members of the U.S. Congress are inclined to force a government shutdown, which may prevent policymakers, business leaders, and investors from accessing the critical data needed to assess the state of the U.S. economy. Stanley, chief economist at Santander US Capital Markets, said the next Fed meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, and if there is no new government data, it will be difficult to prove that another rate cut is justified. Some officials are already cautious about this, hoping to see more data. Bradley, chief policy officer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, stated that a government shutdown will not push the U.S. economy into a recession, but it will come at a cost and increase the uncertainty that companies and business leaders are already dealing with. Switzerland plans to invest in U.S. gold refining industry in exchange for Trump cutting tariffs. According to U.S. media reports, in order to persuade the Trump administration to reduce the 39% import tariffs imposed last month, Switzerland has proposed to invest in the U.S. gold refining industry as part of its efforts. Sources revealed that the proposal presented by Switzerland to U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson and U.S. Trade Representative Jager shows that Swiss refining companies will transfer the least profit-margin business to the United States, including melting gold bars traded in London and recasting them into smaller ingots more favored by the New York market. Christoph Wild, Chairman of the Swiss Precious Metals Production and Trading Association, stated that when transporting gold from the UK to the U.S., there are inefficiencies in the market process, and expanding refining capacity in the U.S. may solve this issue. He pointed out that expanding existing refining plants may be the best way to achieve this goal, but the feasibility of such projects depends on whether there is sufficient demand in the U.S. Stock News Rocket Lab (RKLB.US) and Synspective sign another 10 launch agreements, increasing the total signed Electron launcher missions to 21. On September 29, 2025, Rocket Lab, a global leader in launch services and space systems, announced its second multi-launch contract with Synspective, a leading synthetic aperture radar satellite data and analysis company from Japan. This new contract adds 10 dedicated Electron rocket launches, bringing Synspective's future launch missions to a total of 21 - marking the largest dedicated Electron launcher mission order the company has signed to date with a single customer. ChatGPT partners with Etsy (ETSY.US) and Shopify (SHOP.US) to usher in the AI shopping era. OpenAI launches an instant checkout feature, allowing users to directly purchase products in ChatGPT conversations. This feature, in partnership with Etsy and Shopify, is open to ChatGPT users in the U.S., with over a million merchants joining the platform. Through an agent commerce agreement with Stripe, users can seamlessly complete single-item purchases without having to navigate to external websites. Etsy's stock price surged nearly 16% at Monday's close, while Shopify's stock price rose over 6%. Large Banks Ratings Morgan Stanley: Raised the target price for American Express Company (AXP.US) to $362 from $311 and maintains an "Buy" rating for Western Digital Corporation (WDC.US), raising the target price from $99 to $171. Citi: Raised the target price for BlackRock, Inc. (BLK.US) to $1,350 from $1,200.