Traders expect OPEC+ to continue increasing production in November in order to regain global market share.

On Friday, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) attempt to regain global market share in the oil market, crude oil traders generally expect the organization to approve further production increases in November. According to surveys of traders and analysts by foreign media, Saudi Arabia and its allies are likely to approve production increases in November, which may be equivalent to the planned daily increase of 137,000 barrels in October. The eight core member countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, will make a decision on October 5 during a video conference. OPEC+ has already begun gradually restoring the previously suspended daily production of 1.66 million barrels of crude oil, although industry experts have warned that this move could lead to a market surplus. Saudi Arabia has quickly resumed its previous supply of 2.2 million barrels/day, resisting market pressure, and as a result, oil prices have only slightly fallen. China's massive purchase of oil for strategic reserves, as well as the yet-to-be fully implemented production increase announced by OPEC+, have also supported oil prices to a certain extent. As of Friday, London crude oil futures were trading near $69 per barrel, down about 7% year-to-date. The softening oil prices have provided some relief to global consumers, and have also helped US President Trump push for interest rate cuts and pressure Russia to end the war in Ukraine. The survey results show that out of 21 respondents, only three believe that OPEC+ will remain unchanged, with the majority predicting a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day. However, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman, known for his surprise moves, has previously accelerated supply recovery by exceeding production expectations. Despite facing sanctions and attacks in Ukraine, Russia, as a co-leader of the alliance, also broadly supports the production increase plan. Several OPEC+ representatives explained that the supply that has been paused since 2023 is quickly being restored, indicating a shift in the organization's policy goals from stabilizing oil prices to competing for market share. Insiders revealed that Saudi Arabia hopes to make up for revenue losses caused by falling oil prices and reclaim market share that has been eaten away by competitors like US shale oil in recent years. Kim Fustier, Senior Analyst at HSBC Global Oil and Gas, said, "OPEC+ has fully embraced a market share strategy. Unless there is a steep drop in oil prices, we doubt they will change their stance." By increasing supply, Saudi Arabia also hopes to demonstrate to the market that the actual spare production capacity of most OPEC+ member countries is much lower than widely believed, thus breaking the market's complacency. This week, Iraq and the Kurdistan Region reached an agreement to reopen an oil pipeline that has been closed for over two years. However, the oil price reacted lukewarmly to this news, as traders generally believe that most of the shut-in crude oil has already been consumed domestically or by neighboring countries.