Ivory Coast and Ghana face pressure on future prospects as cocoa prices regain momentum.

Due to the threat of dry weather in West Africa affecting the next season's cocoa production, exacerbating the already tight global cocoa supply system, cocoa futures prices are trending higher on a weekly basis. The most active cocoa futures contract in London rose by 1.3% to 5,264 per ton at one point, driving a cumulative increase of approximately 1.7% for the week, potentially recording a weekly gain and showing a strong rebound from its lowest point in over a month. Monitoring data on flooding and drought in Africa shows that despite recent rainfall, severe drought conditions still prevail in about one-third of the areas in Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer. Meanwhile, more than half of the regions in Ghana are facing extreme drought conditions. "The persistent unfavorable weather conditions and the continued lack of rainfall in West Africa have indicated that the upcoming major harvest may end with quite weak performance." Hanseatic Cocoa & Commodity Office, based in Hamburg, stated in a report. Following the ongoing weak secondary harvest in Ivory Coast, cocoa futures traders are hoping that the new crop starting in October can alleviate the supply shortage. Last week, media reported that one of the world's largest commodity trading companies, Cargill Inc., has halted cocoa grinding operations in the country due to poor quality cocoa beans with unusually high waste levels. Cocoa futures prices surged to a historic high in 2024, with the London/New York front-month once reaching around $10,000-13,000 per ton (April and December 2024 highs), doubling or tripling from the beginning of the year; research found a cumulative increase of approximately +280% in April 2024. As of 2025, cocoa prices have fallen from their historic highs but remain significantly higher than pre-COVID levels and early 2024 levels, at around $7,000 per ton. Ivory Coast/Ghana have been hit by El Nio, prolonged drought, and cocoa swollen shoot virus disease (CSSVD) among other pest and disease infestations, compounded by aging trees, insufficient investments, and smuggling disruptions across the African continent, resulting in multiple seasons of global supply deficits and low stocks; the industry widely expects a further 10% reduction in West African production for the 2025/26 season, with tight expectations for the subsequent cocoa production seasons. Major chocolate manufacturers such as Hershey and Lindt have announced double-digit price increases since 2024, with markets like the UK even experiencing shrinkflation and promotional pricing increases. Despite cocoa's retreat from its peak in the latter half of 2025, the core ingredient of chocolate, cocoa, remains significantly higher in cost compared to previous years, suggesting that the high-pricing trend of chocolate may continue for some time.