Dalio: Gold is a shield against the risk of US debt.
Dalio compared the increasing debt payments in the United States to plaque clogging arteries, noting that this would "crowd out other spending" and could lead to a "heart attack". He suggested that 10% to 15% of a well-diversified investment portfolio should be allocated to gold.
Bridgewater founder Dalio warns that the increasingly heavy debt burden in the United States is pushing its market to the brink of risk, and he advises investors to use gold as a hedge tool to fend off potential systemic crises.
Recently, Dalio likened the increasing debt servicing expenses in the United States to plaque blocking blood vessels, pointing out that this would "squeeze out other expenses" and could potentially lead to a "heart attack."
He recommends allocating 10% to 15% of gold in a well-diversified investment portfolio. This view comes at a time when the U.S. stock market is hitting new highs due to cooling inflation data and expectations of interest rate cuts.
Speaking at the same event, STANCHART CEO Bill Winters stated that while valuations in European markets are not as high as in the United States, they are facing similar situations:
"The UK and France are in a similar situation, but the markets have imposed stricter constraints on them than on the United States."
Amid the debt "heart attack" warning, the safe haven value of gold
The core of Dalio's warning lies in the expanding debt and its servicing costs in the United States. He stated at a launch event for the Abu Dhabi Financial Week to be held in December that when a country spends more money to repay debt, it will inevitably squeeze out other necessary government expenditures, likening this process to the accumulation of plaque in the body's circulatory system:
"Doctors would warn that this could lead to a heart attack."
Dalio sold his remaining stake in Bridgewater earlier this year and stepped down from the hedge fund he co-founded.
In response, his hedging recommendation is gold. He explains that gold has low correlations with other asset classes, and its value often rises against the trend during crises when other assets fall.
Dalio believes that in a "debt-ridden" world with escalating geopolitical tensions, investors should rethink "whose money they own" when constructing a neutral investment portfolio. He offers specific asset allocation advice, suggesting that gold should account for 10% to 15% in a well-diversified investment portfolio.
As of Wednesday's close, thanks to lower-than-expected inflation data and the widespread expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite index have risen by over 11% and 13% respectively this year, hitting historical highs.
However, other market observers also recognize similar potential risks. STANCHART's Bill Winters believes that economies such as the UK and France also face debt problems similar to the United States, but capital markets have shown more obvious constraints on them, implying that the U.S. market may not have fully digested its long-term financial risks.
This article is reproduced from Wall Street Seen. Editor: Xiao Yi Chen.
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