Supply concerns continue to worsen, with Arabica coffee premiums soaring to their highest level since 2011.

Due to concerns over tight supply of high-end coffee beans, the premium level for Arabica coffee over Robusta coffee has risen to its highest point since 2011. The most active Arabica coffee contract on the New York Exchange rose 2.1% to $3.930 per pound, hitting its highest price since May 7. As the world's largest coffee-growing country Brazil lowered its production estimate for the 2025-26 season, this coffee variety, favored by chains like Starbucks, has continued to strengthen in recent weeks. Brazil's crop agency Conab expects Arabica harvest this season to reach 35.2 million bags, slightly lower than the approximately 37 million bags forecasted in May. Last month, the StoneX agency also lowered its production estimate. "This revision comes at a crucial time as the market continues to grapple with the reality of a global supply gap that has persisted for several years," said Henry Clifford, a senior trader at London importer DRWakefield. Ongoing tariff uncertainties also "continue to cast a shadow over global coffee trade flows."