Markets Brace for September as Risks Multiply

date
01/09/2025
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GMT Eight
Global markets started September on a cautious note, weighed down by political risks, economic uncertainty, and seasonal volatility. Investor focus was sharpened by President Trump’s dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a move seen as threatening central bank independence.

Global financial markets entered September under pressure, with investors weighing a mix of political shocks, economic uncertainty, and seasonal weakness. Historically, September has been a volatile month for equities, and this year begins with caution dominating sentiment.

In the United States, concern over central bank independence grew after President Donald Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The move unsettled traders already watching upcoming payroll data and the Fed’s next policy meeting, where a rate cut is widely expected. The U.S. market was closed Monday for Labor Day, leaving international investors to set the tone.

Across Asia, stocks traded unevenly. Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI retreated as technology names slipped, while Chinese shares bucked the regional trend. Blue-chip indexes in China extended strong August gains, with Alibaba surging nearly 20% on optimism for its artificial intelligence and cloud businesses.

Commodity markets reflected the nervous mood. Gold rose to its highest level in over four months as traders positioned for lower U.S. interest rates and a softer dollar. Silver also reached a 14-year peak. The dollar’s weakness followed a court ruling that invalidated most of Trump’s new tariffs, raising fresh doubts about the administration’s trade policy.

Economic data painted a mixed picture. Factory activity in much of Asia slowed under pressure from U.S. tariffs, though China reported expansion, with its manufacturing PMI climbing above 50 for the first time in months. That improvement offered some reassurance but did little to offset broader concerns about global trade.

In Europe, political risk added to the list of uncertainties. French Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a no-confidence vote tied to austerity measures, a development that could destabilize the eurozone’s second-largest economy if support for the government falters. European equities managed small gains in early trading, but investors remain wary.

Taken together, markets are confronting a crowded slate of challenges: political interference in monetary policy, fragile global trade, and potential unrest in Europe. With September’s reputation as one of the toughest months for investors, caution looks set to define the weeks ahead.