Powell's speech heat has not yet dissipated, Nvidia's financial report will be released this week, can the S&P 500 continue its upward trend?
The US stock market will face a "major test" this week.
The U.S. stock market will face a "heavyweight test" this week, as artificial intelligence chip giant NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) will announce its earnings after the close of trading on Wednesday. The market widely believes that its performance and outlook will be a key factor in determining the next direction of the overall market.
After Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in September at the Jackson Hole symposium last Friday, U.S. stocks rebounded strongly, with the S&P 500 index closing up 1.5% last Friday and recording a weekly gain of 0.3%. However, the market failed to continue the upward trend on Monday, with the S&P 500 index falling 0.43%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.77%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index falling 0.22%.
"With the conclusion of the Jackson Hole meeting, the next important catalyst is NVIDIA Corporation's earnings," said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. With NVIDIA Corporation's weighting in the S&P 500 index close to 8%, its performance has a huge impact on the overall market. "NVIDIA Corporation's performance may overshadow or even amplify the market's reaction to Powell's speech."
Currently, NVIDIA Corporation has a market value exceeding $400 billion, and its stock price has risen by nearly 34% year-to-date, far surpassing the 9.5% gain of the S&P 500 index. From a technical perspective, key levels that analysts are watching include the 50-day moving average around $167 and short-term resistance at $184.
At the same time, as one of the "seven giants," NVIDIA Corporation is also the last tech giant to announce quarterly earnings. Anthony Saglimbene, Chief Market Strategist at Ameriprise Financial, warns that Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US), Apple Inc. (AAPL.US), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US), Meta (META.US), Alphabet (GOOG.US, GOOGL.US), and NVIDIA Corporation collectively account for nearly one-third of the S&P 500 index's market value, indicating significant concentration risks in the market.
Despite a strong performance in the second quarter earnings season, with 474 companies in the S&P 500 components reporting results, of which 80% exceeded expectations, the market generally believes that the "true test" this week lies with NVIDIA Corporation. Bespoke Investment Group stated in a report, "The earnings season is basically over, but the real 'elephant in the room' in the market is still NVIDIA Corporation."
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