Zhongyuan: CCL increased by 1.05% on a weekly basis, expected short-term increase in Hong Kong property prices.

The latest Central Plains City Leading Index CCL was reported at 138.63 points, representing a week-on-week increase of 1.05%. Yang Mingyi, Senior Joint Director of the Zhenyuan Real Estate Research Department, pointed out that the CCL has had a significant increase in volatility in the past four weeks, with fluctuations of approximately 1% up and down. This indicates a change in the trend of Hong Kong property prices, as the index is gradually moving away from the previous low level of 135 to 136 points and has been hovering between 137 and 138 points for the past four weeks. With the Hong Kong stock market performing well, interest rates remaining low, and banks offering mortgage discounts to attract clients, the market anticipates a rate cut in September, among other positive factors stimulating the short-term upward movement of Hong Kong property prices. The CCL has reached a high of 139.25 points since the beginning of the year, currently at a difference of 0.62 points or 0.45%. This week, the CCL reflects the termination of the tender for two industrial building sites in Yuen Long and Hung Hom Bridge by the Hong Kong government on July 21st. On the 22nd, the Hang Seng Index broke through the 25,000 points mark and closed at a new high of over 3 and a half years. On the 25th, the first round price list for 88 units at the Phase II of the South Island No. 5B project at Wong Chuk Hang Station was released, while 200 units at the Phase III of the Capri by the Harbour project in Tseung Kwan O were also released. On the 27th, China and the US began the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden. Since May, interest rates have been falling and property prices have seen a slight increase. The CCL has risen eight times and fallen three times in the past 11 weeks, with a 2.57% increase from the low of 135.16 points in the week when the rates were adjusted to below the capped rate in May. Hong Kong property prices have temporarily increased by 0.72% in 2025. Compared to the low point of 134.89 points before the financial case in March 2025, the index has increased by 2.77%. Compared to the low point of 135.86 points before the first rate cut in September 2024, the index has increased by 2.04%. Compared to the historical high of 191.34 points in August 2021, the index has dropped by 27.55%. On August 12th, China and the US agreed to extend the tariff suspension period for another 90 days. On the 13th, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened in the market 11 times to buy Hong Kong dollars, accumulating a total of 116.94 billion Hong Kong dollars. The Hang Seng Index closed above 25,000 points again on the 13th. On the 14th, small and medium-sized banks introduced new mortgage programs with lower interest rates. On the 15th, the first round price list for 62 units at the Waterfront Gate of the Kai Tak Wharf Phase 1B project was released. On the 16th, the second round of sales for 139 units at the Phase 3 of the Pung Wo Sun project was conducted. The impact on the prices of second-hand properties in Hong Kong will be reflected in the CCL to be released in early September 2025. The Leading Index CCL for large-scale housing estates in Central Plains City reported 140.59 points, with a week-on-week increase of 1.34%, reaching a new 53-week high since the beginning of August 2024. The CCL (small and medium units) reported 139.08 points, with a week-on-week increase of 1.24%. Both the CCL Mass and CCL (small and medium units) indices fell by over 1% last week but rebounded this week with a slight increase. The CCL (large units) reported 136.25 points, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.03%, totaling a decrease of 1.64% over the past three weeks. Property prices in the four districts this week saw two increases and two decreases, with fluctuating trends. The CCL Mass in Hong Kong Island reported 140.91 points, with a week-on-week increase of 5.13%, the largest increase since the end of June 2019 (319 weeks). The index sharply fell last week by over 3% but rebounded this week, reaching a new high in 30 weeks since mid-January this year. The CCL Mass in the Western New Territories reported 126.79 points, with a week-on-week increase of 1.33%, the largest increase since early November 2024 (40 weeks). The index fell by over 2% last week but rebounded this week. The CCL Mass in Kowloon reported 138.24 points, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.32%, totaling a decrease of 0.87% over the past two weeks. The CCL Mass in the Eastern New Territories reported 152.69 points, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.35%. In the property index calculation for 2025, the CCL has increased by 0.72%, CCL Mass by 1.78%, CCL (small and medium units) by 1.52%, CCL (large units) by 3.27%, Hong Kong Island by 1.69%, Kowloon by 3.31%, Eastern New Territories by 2.90%, and Western New Territories by 1.22%.