Industry insiders: It is unlikely that Trump's tariffs will lead to a large-scale return of chip manufacturing to the United States.

According to reports, analysts believe that President Trump's plan to impose tariffs of about 100% on all chips entering the United States, but exempting companies producing chips in the US, is unlikely to drive a large-scale reshoring of the chip manufacturing industry. On one hand, industry giants like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) have already invested billions of dollars in building factories in the United States, partly due to previous government subsidies. These projects will be eligible for exemptions, reducing the incentive for these companies to further expand production. On the other hand, high production costs remain a major obstacle. For example, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR estimates that its US business's gross margin will decrease by 2-3 percentage points, and the chips produced will be older generation products compared to those produced in Chinese Taiwan factories. Some experts point out that these tariffs may have a greater impact on electronic companies that rely on imported components. For example, Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) has avoided additional costs by committing to investing $60 billion in the US (most of which is unrelated to chip manufacturing). While tariffs may promote wider domestic manufacturing, industry observers believe that the drive for US chip investment will come more from subsidies under the Chips Act, tax incentives, supply chain resilience, and political considerations by companies like GEO Group Inc, rather than the tariff policy itself.