Huachu Securities: Shunfeng (06936) continues to lead in the volume growth rate in June, pay attention to investment opportunities in the express delivery sector under the "anti-inner loop" trend.

Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that in June of this year, the express delivery industry's parcel volume growth rate was 15.8%. Among listed companies, SF Express led with a 31.8% growth rate in parcel volume, surpassing the business volume of Shentong and Yunda. In addition, the State Post Bureau explicitly opposes "group competition." The firm believes that the industry's trend towards "anti-group competition" is inevitable, which will be beneficial for the long-term performance of express delivery companies; major express delivery companies continue to slow down their capital expenditures, laying the foundation for industry optimization. STO Express Co., Ltd. is still favored due to its strong performance. ZTO Express is also favored for its market leadership and profit level, bringing better returns to investors. The recommendation is to focus on YTO Express and YUNDA Holding Group. The main points are as follows: 1. Industry: The parcel volume growth rate in June was 15.8%. - In June, the industry completed 16.87 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%; from January to June, the total number of parcels completed was 95.64 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%. - Industry revenue: In June, industry revenue was 126.32 billion yuan, up by 9.0% year-on-year, with total revenue from January to June reaching 718.78 billion yuan, up by 10.1% year-on-year. - Single ticket revenue: In June, single ticket revenue was 7.49 yuan, down by 5.9% year-on-year, and averaging 7.52 yuan from January to June, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year. 2. Listed companies' business volume: In June, SF Express led in year-on-year growth, and Shentong's business volume surpassed Yunda's. - Business volume growth rate in June: SF Express (31.8%) > ZTO Express (19.3%) > Industry (15.8%) > Shentong (11.1%) > Yunda (7.4%). - Cumulative business volume growth rate from January to June: SF Express (25.7%) > ZTO Express (21.8%) > Shentong (20.7%) > Industry (19.3%) > Yunda (16.5%). 3. Listed companies' express delivery revenue: In June, SF Express led in growth rate. - Revenue growth rate in June: SF Express (14.2%) > ZTO Express (11.4%) > Shentong (10.2%) > Industry (9.0%) > Yunda (2.8%). - Cumulative revenue growth rate from January to June: Shentong (15.7%) > ZTO Express (14.2%) > SF Express (10.2%) > Industry (10.1%) > Yunda (7.7%). 4. Single ticket revenue: SF Express and Shentong saw improvements compared to the previous month. - Single ticket revenue in June: Shentong 1.99 yuan, down by 1.0% year-on-year, and up by 2.1% month-on-month; Yunda 1.91 yuan, down by 4.5% year-on-year, and down by 0.5% month-on-month; ZTO Express 2.10 yuan, down by 6.7% year-on-year, and down by 0.9% month-on-month; SF Express 13.67 yuan, down by 13.3% year-on-year, and up by 4.2% month-on-month. - Cumulative single ticket revenue from January to June: Shentong 2.00 yuan, down by 4.2% year-on-year; Yunda 1.94 yuan, down by 7.5% year-on-year; ZTO Express 2.19 yuan, down by 6.3% year-on-year; SF Express 13.97 yuan, down by 12.3% year-on-year. 5. SF Express maintains its leading growth rate from the beginning of the year. The company implemented the "activate operation" strategy in 2024, introducing a series of organizational and mechanism changes. The headquarters transitioned from a traditional management model to a service-based operation, emphasizing support functions for frontline operations. The company increased operational authorization for business areas, enhancing the agility of frontline decision-making, unlocking market expansion potential for business areas and branches. From March to June, the operational data showed significant improvement, with the company leading the industry in parcel volume growth rate for four consecutive months from April to June. 6. Investment recommendations: - E-commerce express delivery: Focus on investment opportunities in the express delivery sector under the trend of anti-group competition. On July 8th, the State Post Bureau held a meeting, proposing to further strengthen industry regulation, improve market system rules in the postal and express delivery sector, and clearly oppose "group competition." The firm believes that the trend towards anti-group competition is inevitable and will be beneficial for the long-term performance of express delivery companies, with major express delivery companies continuing to slow down their capital expenditures, laying the foundation for industry optimization. The firm still favors STO Express Co., Ltd. given that the trend of "profit" from volume has already started, making it a company with great potential for performance improvement. ZTO Express is favored for its leading market position and profit level, providing better returns to investors. The recommendation is to focus on YTO Express and YUNDA Holding Group. - Continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in SF Express. 1) The company's "activate operation" strategy has accelerated business volume and revenue growth rates, with growth rates outperforming the industry from March to June, with growth rates of 25.4%, 29.9%, 31.8%, and 31.8% respectively; compared to the industry growth rates of 20.3%, 19.1%, 17.2%, and 15.8%. The company has maintained the highest parcel volume growth rate since the beginning of the year. 2) In June, we published a report "Decoding SF Express (20): Looking at SF Express from the perspective of free cash flow: the brilliance beyond the profit and loss statement", analyzing SF Express from the perspective of free cash flow and believing it can be sustainably optimized. Risk advisory: Economic downturn, significant slowdown in industry parcel volume growth rates, and significant expansion of price wars.