A market value of $4 trillion is just the beginning! NVIDIA Corporation's (NVDA.US) overseas commercialization will ignite a new round of buying opportunities.
Analyst Rick Orford believes that it is not too late to invest in NVIDIA now, as the company now has a brand new market for chip sales.
Notice that NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) has refreshed all records in commercial history with a market value of 4.17 trillion US dollars, becoming the most valuable company in the world today. Considering that in 2020, when the AI boom had not fully erupted, NVIDIA Corporation's market value was only about 360 billion US dollars, even the most pessimistic shorts will be shocked by this growth.
Analyst Rick Orford believes that it is not too late to invest in NVIDIA Corporation now. He reiterated his "buy" rating on NVIDIA Corporation, not because of its 4 trillion market value or all the favorable factors that have been analyzed, but because NVIDIA Corporation now has a new chip sales market.
In addition, investors need to pay attention to the following key DRIVES. Despite the astonishing growth, NVIDIA Corporation's overseas commercialization is just beginning, and the ceiling has not yet been reached.
Restart of sales of H20 GPUs to China
Previously, the export restrictions caused NVIDIA Corporation to lose $4.5 billion on H20 chips, and the next quarter's financial report is expected to reflect an $8 billion revenue gap. But the situation has now turned around.
The U.S. government has promised to issue import licenses, and NVIDIA Corporation will soon resume supplying H20 and new RTX PRO GPUs to China. Although the performance is not as good as the previous generation, the new products with the Blackwell architecture will still maintain a premium price. Chinese AI companies will surely be eager to make purchases, and these transactions will significantly boost company revenue.
It can be confirmed that Chinese super-large-scale data center operators who have long been restricted by hardware embargoes will not miss this opportunity. But the business opportunity is far more than that.
China embraces open-source AI ecology
After the open-source model Deepseek emerged in late 2023, tech giants such as Baidu Inc Sponsored ADR Class A and Alibaba have successively joined the open-source wave. Today, when Huang Renxun attended the China International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing, he praised China's open-source AI strategy as the "catalyst for global progress." Even with the resumption of sales to China, by lowering the threshold for AI development, NVIDIA Corporation's market size will continue to expand exponentially.
It is expected that Chinese companies similar to CoreWeave will launch universal cloud GPU services based on NVIDIA Corporation's H20 chips. All developers will eventually converge on the NVIDIA Corporation hardware platform - after all, in the field of AI chips, whether they are American competitors or local manufacturers, it is difficult to match NVIDIA Corporation's expertise.
CUDA ecosystem as a moat
Even ignoring the hardware performance advantage, NVIDIA Corporation's CUDA platform is still far ahead. Most open-source AI models are optimized for CUDA, which means that even if new competitive architectures emerge in China, their training and optimization processes will still default to NVIDIA Corporation's infrastructure.
The timing of the open-source wave is perfect for NVIDIA Corporation. The H20 is its strongest GPU that can be legally sold to China, and naturally enjoys pricing power. This trend will also help NVIDIA Corporation navigate through the political fog of GEO Group Inc - the core of the export restrictions is gradually dissipating with the technological open source.
Orford believes that the previous U.S. ban may have been a bargaining chip in rare earth negotiations, and this game has clearly reached a compromise. Although the specific volume of shipments to China has not been disclosed, the explosive growth of the Chinese data center market is foreseeable. What is even more imaginative is: if other countries follow the open-source model, NVIDIA Corporation's market value may surpass the boundaries of imagination.
Saudi AI factory cooperation plan (HUMAIN)
Cooperating with Saudi HUMAIN is another important catalyst. This kingdom, which has accumulated wealth from oil for decades, is investing billions of dollars in building an AI factory equipped with "hundreds of thousands of GPUs," aiming to become a superpower in AI. The first phase of the project includes 18,000 NVIDIA Corporation GB300 Grace Blackwell supercomputers.
It is worth noting that the evolution of AI has an endless demand for computing power, which means that more NVIDIA Corporation chips will be needed in the future. This cooperation alone has opened up a huge runway for the company.
The UAE's Stargate Project
The "Stargate" project on the other side of the Persian Gulf is equally astonishing. This 1GW computing cluster, covering 10 square miles (approximately the size of the Manhattan financial district), will use NVIDIA Corporation GB300 processors. The first phase of the 200MW cluster is expected to be operational in 2026, requiring 100,000 NVIDIA Corporation chips.
G42 in the UAE is responsible for infrastructure, while OpenAI and Oracle Corporation are responsible for operation. As the demand for computing power grows, NVIDIA Corporation will continue to supply chips - which means huge profits.
Quantum computing layout
To stay ahead, NVIDIA Corporation is entering the field of quantum computing. Japan's ABCI-Q supercomputer is equipped with over 2,000 H100 GPUs, which may pave the way for NVIDIA Corporation in the "largest computing revolution since the invention of semiconductors."
Although it does not directly produce quantum processors, NVIDIA Corporation is positioning its GPUs as the bridge hardware between classical computing and quantum computing, reproducing its successful model in the AI infrastructure field. Just as Orford's analogy in the AI gold rush: NVIDIA Corporation has always been the one selling "pickaxes." If judged correctly, the quantum computing field will see this scene again.
The subsidiary NVAQC research center is developing GPU hardware to support quantum supercomputing. If successful, NVIDIA Corporation's stock price may experience a "quantum leap."
NVLink fusion strategy
The most underestimated progress is the NVLink open strategy. On the surface, NVIDIA Corporation seems to have given up its proprietary technological advantages, but it has actually built a more sophisticated ecosystem trap - large-scale customers will be locked into the NVIDIA Corporation system when customizing chips.
When companies like Alphabet Inc. Class C, Amazon.com, Inc., and Meta develop their own AI chips to reduce dependence, NVIDIA Corporation ensures product demand by requiring their ASIC chips to be integrated with NVIDIA Corporation infrastructure through NVLink. This is like Microsoft Corporation selling Office software on Mac computers - not only does it not harm the Windows system, it actually strengthens its cross-platform dominance.
As companies like Marvell, Qualcomm, and Fujitsu sign contracts, NVIDIA Corporation has opened up new streams of revenue with almost zero research and development costs.
Wall Street consensus
In the past three months, 68 analysts have given ratings: 49 "strong buy," 12 "buy," only 6 "hold," and only one "sell" rating. Although NVIDIA Corporation's stock price is at a historic high, this is by no means a reason to sell now.
Conclusion
Long-term tracking has convinced Orford that there is currently no candidate to replace NVIDIA Corporation. Just as Netflix is essential for streaming, AI chips belong to NVIDIA Corporation. This irreplaceability explains why Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others are willing to pay a premium. As trade issues with China ease, NVIDIA Corporation not only gains a more certain development environment, but also welcomes a customer base growing exponentially.
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