Goldman Sachs downgrades two Korean chip ratings: SK Hynix and Samsung both drop, HBM prices may see first decline in 2026

On Thursday, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. downgraded SK Hynix, the South Korean chip giant, for the first time in over three years, leading to a drop in its stock price. This adjustment was due to Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. analysts' assessment of increased industry competition, with other manufacturers making technological breakthroughs that could weaken SK Hynix's advantage in key product areas. Coincidentally, on the same day, an analyst team led by Lee Jun-yi at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. downgraded Samsung Electronics' rating from "buy" to "neutral," causing Samsung's stock price to experience its largest intraday decline of 8.8% since April 7. As a major supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), SK Hynix has benefited in recent years from the boom in the artificial intelligence industry, resulting in a significant increase in its stock price. While Samsung is temporarily behind in acquiring the certification for NVIDIA Corporation's HBM chips, the market continues to closely monitor its technological progress. If Samsung successfully closes the gap, SK Hynix's profit margins may come under pressure. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. pointed out in a research report: "As competition in the HBM market intensifies, and pricing power gradually shifts to Hynix customers who dominate the market share, HBM product prices may see their first decline in 2026." Although the artificial intelligence theme has recently regained market favor, propelling NVIDIA Corporation to become the world's first semiconductor company with a market value exceeding $4 trillion, investors remain highly sensitive to industry chain risks. This week, cautious remarks from ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML.US) about the industry's prospects directly triggered a collective decline in global chip stocks, which also added to the pressure on SK Hynix's stock price. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. analysts emphasized that despite the continued accumulation of risk factors, SK Hynix's stock price has significantly outperformed the market with a 57% increase since the beginning of the year, while Samsung Electronics' increase is only 23% during the same period. Seoul SK Securities analyst Cho Junkee observed a subtle change in market sentiment: "For a long time, foreign institutional investors have generally adopted a 'long Hynix, short Samsung' strategy in the semiconductor sector, but recently, this trend is changing. Samsung is regaining favor with investors, and some funds are starting to adjust their portfolio structures." It is worth noting that before Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. adjusted its ratings, Future Asset Securities Company had already downgraded Samsung Electronics' rating earlier this week. Analyst Kim Yong-jean predicted in the report that as the next generation of HBM chips begins mass production next year, SK Hynix's market share may gradually be eroded by Samsung starting from 2026, with Samsung expected to demonstrate a significant market share recovery between 2026 and 2027.