Mizuho’s Underperform Call on Circle Signals Caution in Crypto Infrastructure

Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev expressed skepticism over Circle’s revenue momentum, pointing to slowing consumer adoption of its USD Coin stablecoin alongside broader weakness in crypto markets. Although digital payments and blockchain services are still growing in global importance, Circle's dependence on transaction volume and spread income leaves it vulnerable to market cycles and regulatory pressure. The high valuation implied by the $85 price target is based on overly optimistic assumptions about future growth, especially in a period when U.S. and global central banks are tightening monetary policy.

Market reaction to Mizuho’s call was swift, with the stock coming under pressure as investors digested a reminder that fintech companies tied to digital assets are not immune to traditional business risks. If cryptocurrency trading and digital payments falter, Circle could face diminished margins and slower top-line growth, calling into question the sustainability of its business model.

Further complicating the outlook are ongoing regulatory debates in the U.S. and Europe around stablecoin issuance and oversight, which may create compliance uncertainty and added costs for the company. As a result, Mizuho’s caution is a timely reminder to investors that Circle operates at the intersection of disruptive technology and regulation,and enthusiasm must be tempered with careful evaluation of execution risk, market dynamics, and structural vulnerabilities.