HK Stock Market Move | YOURAN DAIRY (09858) rose more than 7%, institutions are optimistic about the future resonance of the dairy and beef cattle cycles.

YOURAN DAIRY (09858) rose by more than 7%, as of the time of the report, it rose by 7.2% to 3.72 Hong Kong dollars, with a trading volume of 76.5174 million Hong Kong dollars. Huatai stated that the Chinese dairy industry cycle is currently in a period of low milk prices, driving continuous capacity reduction in the upstream breeding industry and downstream dairy companies waiting for demand recovery. It is expected that under the reshaping of supply and demand relationship with the decline in raw milk production and mild improvement in demand for dairy products, the dairy industry is expected to return to supply-demand balance by 2026. At that time, the rise in raw milk prices will directly catalyze the profits and stock prices of upstream pastoral enterprises represented by YOURAN DAIRY. According to data from the China Dairy Association, the inventory in May-June 2025 decreased by 10-15 thousand heads year-on-year, with clear direction in capacity reduction. The bank expects that against the background of concentrated feed procurement and a potential uptrend in beef cattle prices in Q3 2025, upstream ranches may accelerate clearance. Bullish on the future resonance of the raw milk and beef cattle cycle, driving performance improvement of upstream pastoral enterprises, the company, as a leading ranch enterprise, is expected to benefit from it and is rated as a "buy". Guosen pointed out that as a raw milk supply platform controlled by Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group, YOURAN DAIRY's business covers the entire process from breeding, feed to dairy cattle breeding. The beef cattle cycle of 2025 is expected to reach a turning point, bullish on the resonance and uptrend in the domestic beef and dairy market. Beef market: Overseas beef prices have entered an uptrend cycle due to decreased production in major producing areas, coupled with import regulations, the future domestic import beef is expected to decrease in quantity and increase in price. The bank believes that the domestic beef cattle cycle might reach an upward turning point in 2025, and beef prices are expected to continue to rise until 2027. Raw milk market: Domestic raw milk prices have been falling for nearly 4 years, and continuous losses bring pressure on capacity clearance. At the same time, the domestic beef and dairy price ratio has reached historic highs, and is expected to accelerate the elimination of dairy cows, achieving "beef and dairy resonance".