TrendForce: It is estimated that the size of the Robotaxi market in China will reach 44.5 billion US dollars by 2035.

Recently, Tesla is testing its Robotaxi technology in Texas, USA, and intends to expand its services to the San Francisco Bay Area, attracting attention from the industry. TrendForce Consulting predicts that the Robotaxi market in the US will be dominated by Tesla and Waymo, with an estimated size of $36.5 billion by 2035. The Robotaxi industry in China is thriving, benefiting from a mature supply chain system where hardware costs are expected to decrease rapidly. TrendForce Consulting estimates that the market size for Robotaxi in China will reach $44.5 billion by 2035, with a high CAGR of 96% from 2025 to 2035. Chinese manufacturers are numerous and active, with companies like Baidu, Xiaoma Zhixing, and Wenque Zhixing leading the way. With the rapid increase in the number of vehicles and strong support from local electric vehicle manufacturers and supply chains, the hardware costs for Robotaxi vehicles and autonomous driving solutions are rapidly decreasing. As a result, the cost per unit distance for Robotaxi services is expected to decrease, increasing user willingness to use them. Last week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated that they are waiting for permission from the California regulatory authorities, expecting to launch Robotaxi services in the Bay Area in one to two months. TrendForce Consulting explains that there are three levels of autonomous vehicle permits in California: Testing with a Driver, Driverless Test, and Deployment. Currently, only three companies, including Waymo, have obtained Deployment permits to provide commercial services to the public in specific areas. TrendForce Consulting analysis shows that Tesla's expansion of Robotaxi deployment depends on two key factors: the speed and timing of obtaining Deployment permits, involving meeting strict requirements from regulatory agencies, and whether Tesla can mass-produce the Cybercab designed specifically for Robotaxi by 2026 as planned, which will directly impact Tesla's scalability and cost-effectiveness in the autonomous driving market. TrendForce Consulting estimates that the annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of the US Robotaxi market from 2025 to 2035 will reach 61%. In this large market, Tesla, with its advantages in manufacturing and visual solutions, has relatively lower vehicle hardware costs. Despite having the advantage of early entry, Waymo may face a threat to its leadership position from Tesla if it cannot accelerate its expansion and reduce costs effectively. Although Robotaxi shows growth potential, the industry still faces several challenges. For example, differences in autonomous driving policies across countries and regions will constrain the speed of cross-border fleet expansion. Additionally, the highly complex and research-intensive nature of autonomous driving technology makes it difficult for new entrants to the market. Robotaxi companies also typically face a long investment payback period, making it difficult to assess the specific point of profitability. Furthermore, issues such as potential job displacement for drivers, concerns about vehicle operation safety, and personal privacy will also impact the future development and popularization of Robotaxi services.