Trump's countdown to electric vehicle tax supplement: French Bank: Rivian (RIVN.US) and Lucid (LCID.US) may welcome growth catalysts.

date
04/07/2025
avatar
GMT Eight
French bank BNP Paribas pointed out that electric car manufacturers Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US) and Lucid Group (LCID.US) will benefit from President Donald Trump's tax reform spending bill.
French bank BNP Paribas pointed out that electric car manufacturers Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US) and Lucid Group (LCID.US) will benefit from President Donald Trump's tax expenditure bill. The stock prices of both companies rose by 4.3% and 8.3% on Thursday, closing up 1.5% and 5.4% respectively. The bill, which has been passed by the US Senate and faces challenges in the House on Thursday, will end the $7,500 electric car consumer tax credit after September 30. BNP Paribas analyst James Picariello wrote in a client report on Thursday: "Similar to Rivian, we believe that Lucid will benefit from reduced competition caused by OEMs weakening the US electric car strategy." In recent years, companies such as General Motors, Ford, Hyundai and its subsidiary Kia have been ramping up production of electric vehicles. However, Picariello points out that with government subsidies tapering off and consumer demand softening, the expansion pace of these companies is likely to slow down. For pure electric brands like Rivian, Lucid, and Tesla, Inc., this may actually bring more market share. The bill provides potential benefits for the electric vehicle sector, but due to macro pressures such as tariff uncertainty, electric vehicle stocks have been under pressure this year. Picariello mentioned that Rivian may also benefit from negative sentiment towards Elon Musk and Tesla, Inc. (stemming from Musk's previous cooperation with the Trump administration). Tesla, Inc. announced on Wednesday that its second-quarter deliveries were 384,122 vehicles, a 13% decrease from the same period last year. It is worth noting that both Rivian and Lucid's second-quarter deliveries were lower than expected: the former delivered 10,661 vehicles, 2.3% lower than the average analyst expectation; the latter delivered 3,309 vehicles, 4% lower than expected. BNP Paribas predicts that delivery volumes will rebound in the third quarter as consumers rush to buy cars before the tax credit expires. Given that Lucid's production capacity is ramping up slowly and the Gravity SUV is not expected to hit the market until late 2025, with crossover models even further out until 2027, Rivian's benefits may exceed those of Lucid. Currently, Picariello rates Rivian as "outperforming the market" and Lucid as "underperforming the market."