UBS Group AG: Q2 car deliveries might disappoint the market, reiterates "sell" rating on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US)

UBS Group AG releases research report, reaffirming its "sell" rating on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) with a target price of $215. UBS Group AG predicts that Tesla, Inc. will announce its second quarter 2025 delivery data on July 2nd, with a delivery volume of approximately 366,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9%, but still 10% lower than market expectations. By region, UBS Group AG expects Tesla's car delivery volume to increase quarter-on-quarter in the US, remain flat in Europe, and possibly decrease in China. According to discussions with investors, UBS Group AG expects Tesla, Inc.'s Q2 delivery volume to be in the range of 355,000 to 375,000. Tesla will also release energy storage deployment data, which UBS Group AG predicts to be 11.3GWh, an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter, slightly lower than the market expectation of 11.8GWh. UBS Group AG reminds investors that energy storage project deployments are subject to volatility. In the report, UBS Group AG notes that many investors are focusing on Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous driving robotaxi, and may "overlook" the electric vehicle delivery data as they believe the value of Tesla, Inc. stock lies in artificial intelligence (AI) such as Siasun Robot&Automation taxis and humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation. However, UBS Group AG emphasizes that Tesla, Inc.'s current financial performance primarily relies on its automotive business, which not only helps fund cutting-edge projects but also injects a higher premium into already expensive AI options due to the market's support data being sparse. UBS Group AG states that a lower than expected delivery report could serve as a reality check. Historical data show that lower than expected delivery volumes can lead to a decline in Tesla, Inc. stock price, but last quarter's anomaly is worth noting: despite the delivery volume being 11% lower than market expectations, Tesla, Inc. stock price rose against the trend by 5%, marking the largest deviation since 2022. This may indicate that Tesla, Inc. has further entered the world where "automotive fundamentals are not important." UBS Group AG also mentions that the stock price volatility caused by delivery volumes may be temporary, and the subsequent financial reports will be the main event. Although Tesla, Inc.'s second-quarter financial report may not be optimistic, CEO Musk may fully outline his future vision during the conference call. TipRanks data shows that Wall Street analysts have mixed views on Tesla, with 14 giving a "buy" rating, 12 a "hold" rating, and 9 a "sell" rating, with a consensus rating of "hold" and an average target price of $287.00, 12% lower than the current stock price level.