Hong Kong stock concept tracking | If the supply disturbance increases, there is still a rebound opportunity for the coking coal price (with concept stocks attached)

Since June, the average price of 5500 kcal power coal in Qinhuangdao is 616 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2% compared to May, and a decrease of 29% compared to the average price in June of the previous year. As of June 13, the offer price is 615 yuan/ton. Sinolink stated that the average daily consumption of thermal coal has increased by 2.4% since June compared to May, indicating the beginning of an upward trend. It is expected that the daily consumption of thermal coal will gradually increase in the next 2-3 months, which will help improve demand. Geopolitical events may disrupt the supply of energy and some chemical products, further stimulating demand for coal chemicals. As the safety production month begins, the disturbances caused by coal mine safety risks, combined with a reduction in imports, will lead to a weak elasticity in supply as the peak season approaches. Sinolink predicts that domestic coal production will remain high in May, squeezing out a portion of the cost-competitive domestic and foreign supply after a significant adjustment in domestic coal prices. The narrowing price advantage of imported coal may lead some end-users to purchase domestic coal, providing certain support to port coal prices. The current market has been in a situation of "high supply + high inventory + weak demand" for nearly 6 months, and may be sensitive to bullish factors. It is possible for post-summer traders to continue bargaining with power plants to release the demand for peak summer stocking, potentially leading to a slight increase in coal prices at the end of May and beginning of June. However, considering that the overall social inventory is still high compared to the same period last year, the increase is expected to be small and short-lived. Related Hong Kong-listed coal sector companies: Yankuang Energy Group (01171), China Coal Energy (01898), China Shenhua Energy (01088), YANCOAL AUS (03668).