Tianfeng: In the second half of the year, the macro environment faces multiple conflicting contradictions. Focus on domestic consumption and the two main industry trends of self-controllable.

Tianfeng's research report stated that looking ahead to the second half of 2025, the macro environment faces multiple conflicting challenges: first, the transformation of economic old and new drivers; second, although there are short-term risks, in the long term, China's export competitiveness advantage is significant. Looking ahead, the bank believes that the policy game revolving around two core issues (repetitive tariffs + limited ability to reduce spending) remains intense, and market volatility may further increase. Industry main themes: A. Domestic consumption allocation strategy: turning point in financial reports + strong policy support and certainty + pure domestic demand sectors. B. Self-sufficient and controllable allocation strategy: screening sectors with high reliance on imports from the US and domestic supply capability. Key points are as follows: 1. Abandon fantasies and break through challenges. The report warned of multiple conflicting challenges in the macro environment in the second half of 2025, emphasizing the importance of the transformation of economic drivers and the significant competitive advantage of Chinese enterprises behind exports. It also discussed the risks and opportunities in the global economic environment. 2. The importance of the capital market continues to rise. The report highlighted the potential trends in the monetary and credit policies and the activity in the capital markets. It also mentioned the significance of the Hong Kong stock market and the impact of the Trump 2.0 era on new variables in policies. 3. The new variables after Trump 2.0's "first hundred days" of policies are discussed, including a comparison of his campaign promises and achievements, and the potential impact on the market. 4. Industry main lines are highlighted, including domestic consumption and self-sufficient and controllable sectors. 5. Theme investments in the ocean economy are discussed, highlighting the growth potential and strategic importance of this sector in driving economic development. Risks to be aware of include unexpected developments in international situations, higher-than-expected inflation, and tighter-than-expected liquidity.