The conflict in Iran escalated, sounding the alarm for the global shipping industry.

Shipping companies, brokers, and analysts are warning that key maritime routes in the Middle East will face risks after Israel launched attacks on Iran. This event has further escalated tensions in a region crucial for global oil supply and trade. Early Friday morning, Israel carried out attacks on major targets in Iran, including nuclear and military facilities in Tehran. This action has heightened tensions and could lead to retaliatory actions from Iran. Iran has threatened that its neighbors will "pay an extremely heavy price." Tokyo-based shipping companies such as Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha were among the first to urge caution in navigation following the attacks. It is expected that other companies will follow suit, as these attacks have put a spotlight on the region's oil and container shipping routes. Stock investors have anticipated that rising shipping prices will have a positive impact on companies, leading to increases in shipping stocks such as COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy Shipping. Due to global economic slowdown, tanker freight prices have been low. Anoop Singh, Global Shipping Research Director at Oil Brokerage Ltd., pointed out the significant impact of the threat of war in the Middle East on freight rates. Currently, this represents a risk premium - ship owners will not send their vessels to the Gulf region as usual. Some of the world's most important waterways are located in the Middle East, serving as vital passages for container ships traveling between Asia and Europe. For example, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway where Iran holds significant influence, processing about a quarter of global oil trade, making it a major point of concern. The Red Sea, situated between the Suez Canal and the Bab el Mandeb Strait, is another crucial passage - essential for container ships, and has been under attack by Houthi rebels in Yemen. Singh stated that at any given time, at least 10% of the world's very large crude carriers fleet (approximately 90 ships) are in the Gulf region, with about 20 ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz daily. Closing the Strait of Hormuz (the main passage for oil tankers from major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and even Iran) is seen as an extreme measure, and Iran may still try to avoid taking this step. However, their willingness to seek retaliation is evident. Hans Tino Hansen, CEO of security consultancy firm Risk Intelligence, said, "If Iran intends to expand its retaliatory actions against other parties by forcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the consequences will be extremely dire." Analyst Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy A/S estimated that if Iran attempts to disrupt oil transport in the waterway while taking actions such as attacking the region's oil infrastructure or targeting US military facilities, market reactions could be "seriously severe," leading to a $20 or higher increase in oil prices. Friday's attacks will benefit auxiliary service sectors that provide security for ships navigating in the area. According to Jayendu Krishna, Director of Maritime Services, bulk carrier prices will also rise - dry bulk trade in the Middle East (involving unpackaged goods such as ores and minerals) accounts for over 10% of global total trade. Krishna said, "The additional war-risk premiums for voyages to the Middle East will suddenly increase or decrease. Realigning the supply chain will take time." This situation highlights the increasingly dire situation for shipping companies. At least two security and crisis management firms are advising commercial vessels about to enter the region to take additional precautions or simply avoid the area. According to alerts from the EOS Risk Group, vessels entering waters near Israel, Iran, Syria, Egypt, Cyprus, or the Suez Canal should conduct emergency drills, stay in contact with foreign embassies or local military, and avoid crew members being exposed on deck during navigation. Another warning from maritime security company Ambrey advises vessels to thoroughly check any connections with Israeli entities or individuals and, if necessary, reroute to avoid the area, as Iran may retaliate against Israel.