Sino-Thai International: "Buy" rating on HANSOH PHARMA (03692) raised, target price increased to HKD 29.3

Zhongtai International released a research report stating that they are giving a "buy" rating to HANSOH PHARMA (03692) with a target price raised to 29.30 Hong Kong dollars. Taking into account the above factors, the bank has adjusted the product sales revenue for 2025-27E by 0.2%-0.6% each, reflecting the contribution of overseas sales of Amele. The bank has also raised total revenue forecasts by 1.2%-3.7%, shareholder net profit forecasts by 1.3%-4.9%, and also adjusted the forecast for licensing fee income after 2028 to reflect the upfront payment and milestone revenues brought by overseas licensing of HS20094. The main points of Zhongtai International are as follows: The company has once again successfully entered into an overseas licensing agreement with a well-known American pharmaceutical company. The company has signed a licensing agreement with the well-known American pharmaceutical company Regeneron (REGN.US), granting Regeneron rights to develop, produce, and commercialize GLP-1 receptor agonist HS-20094 in pipelines outside of Mainland China and Hong Kong. The company will receive an upfront payment of $80 million and up to $1.93 billion in milestone payments. In addition, after the product is launched, the company will receive double-digit percentage royalty fees on sales. HS-20094 is a GLP-1/GIP dual receptor agonist under development, and has successfully completed multiple Phase II clinical trials. The bank believes that Regeneron's recognition indicates the high quality of the product. The company has entered into licensing agreements with global pharmaceutical giants GSK (GSKUS) and Merck & Co., Inc. (MRKUS) in the oncology and metabolism fields in 2023-24, and this agreement further demonstrates the high recognition of the company's research and development capabilities among overseas renowned enterprises. The core product of the oncology business, Amele, has been approved in the UK, showcasing the company's research and development capabilities. The company announced yesterday that its core product, the third-generation EGFR-TKI Amele in the oncology field, has been approved in the UK. Indications include: 1) as a monotherapy for the first-line treatment of adult patients with locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with activating epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations; 2) treatment of adult patients with locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC who are positive for EGFRT790M mutation. Due to the approval of Astrazeneca PLC Sponsored ADR (AZNUS) third-generation EGFR-TKI Osimertinib in many countries as a first-line therapy for EGFR mutation NSCLC patients, the bank is making cautious sales forecasts for Amele in the UK in the short term, but the UK approval indicates high quality. The company will continue to advance the product for market approval in the European Union, and the bank believes that the UK approval will lay a solid foundation. Risk factors: 1) New drug research and development is slower than expected; 2) Drug price reductions are greater than expected; 3) New drug promotion effects are worse than expected.